Strawman problem statement:
Declines and fluctuations in seabird populations

 
Issue
Pribilof Islands host the largest seabird colonies in the world. Declines and fluctuations in populations of many of the Pribilof Islands' seabird species have been apparent since the 1970's.

Why do we care?
The Pribilof Islands' isolated location near the continental shelf break in the middle of the Eastern Bering Sea makes them an ideal location for seabirds to nest relatively free of predators and in close proximity to deep sea foraging areas. Indeed, the Pribilofs provide critical migrating, breeding and over-wintering habitat for a number of marine bird species, including the red-legged kittiwake (80% of the global population), thick-billed murre and the Steller's eider, all three of which have had significant population declines in recent times. Over 211 species of birds have been observed on the islands, 15 of which are endemic to the region or extremely limited in range. Seabirds are an important component of marine ecosystems and population declines at the world's largest seabird colonies may signal that other changes are occurring within the Eastern Bering Sea ecosystem. Residents of the Pribilof Islands depend in part on seabirds for subsistence, and take a small number of red-legged kittiwakes and least auklets each spring and murre eggs in the summer. Subsistence harvests, including those of seabirds, are a vitally important component of the Pribilof Islands' Aleut culture. The heavy concentration of seabirds is the major draw for tourists who come from all over the world to view the birds and who contribute to the Islands' small but growing tourism industry, which is an increasingly important component of the Islands' economy.

Stakeholder concerns

  • Large declines or fluctuations in seabird populations may affect the food web and ecosystem of the Eastern Bering Sea. Conversely, seabird populations may be effected by changes currently occurring within the ecosystem.
  • Subsistence harvests could be affected if numbers continue to decline and shift, resulting in negative impacts on the material, social, cultural, and spiritual health of the island's people who depend on this and other subsistence harvests.
  • The islands' tourism industry could be harmed by declines in the number of birds available for viewing.
Status of Seabirds in the Pribilof Islands
Since the 1970's:
  • Black-legged kittiwakes have declined 50% on both St. George and St. Paul.
  • Red-legged kittiwakes have declined 40% on St. George and St. Paul.
  • Common murres have declined 50-60% on St. Paul but have increased 30% on St. George.
  • Thick-billed murres have declined slightly on St. Paul but have increased slightly on St. George.
Speculation on possible reasons for declines:
The declines and fluctuations in Pribilof Island seabird populations are poorly understood, however, speculation on contributing factors includes:
  • Decline in forage fish abundance due to ecosystem changes that may be linked to climate change and/or fishing practices.
  • Other effects of global climate change and global pollutants.
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