BCNet     The Collection of Size Class Structure and Recruitment Data of Canarium indicumby Local Communities in the Makira Conservation in Development Project Area, Solomon Islands

3. RESULTS

3.1 What have the collected data told us?
Any discussion regarding preliminary conclusions from the ngali nut data collected to date is limited to the amount of data collected, and furthermore is specific only to the geographic region and habitat type from which the surveys have been completed. The data collected to date within the Bauro Highlands was unavailable at the time of writing, and thus the presentation of results here must be limited to the Warihito and Wainoni areas.

3.1.1 Results from the East Bauro (Warihito Area) District
Preliminary results from the collected data represent conclusions drawn on density and population structure by size class (see § 2.4.2 for a summary of the three size classes). Density (as a measure of abundance) and the structure of the local population in terms of size (a function of age) are both basic sources of biological information which are essential to building a comprehension of the current condition of local ngali nut populations within the project area, upon which longer-term monitoring considerations examining sustainability issues of nut harvesting will be built. Table 4, below, summarizes the team's findings from data collected within the Warihito area surveys.

In order to generate the results listed within Table 4, all circumference data collected were converted into measurements of diameter, so that each tree measured could be categorized within one of the three previously specified size classes. By dividing the total number of trees of a specific size class by the total number of hectares surveyed, a rough estimate of the abundance in terms of ngali nut density (number of individuals per unit area) was determined. Additionally, a rough determination of the structure of the sampled ngali population by size class was generated by determining the ratio of the total number of trees observed to the total number of trees within a specific size class.

Abundance Results
Preliminary results suggest that the small and medium sizes classes are relatively uniform across the paired survey sites in terms of their density, and even the value for the density of large trees encountered within the "bush" surveys is close to the small and medium class figures. However, the abundance per hectare of ngali trees within the larger size class of the "garden" area surveys appears to be significantly reduced, as suggested by the density value listed in Table 4. Perhaps this value is indicative of previous clearing activity within the surveyed areas, such as selective cutting of old growth forest by residents in order to allow room for the planting of other fruit-producing tree species (an activity which would not be considered unusual within an agroforestry system). This reduced abundance could also reflect past harvesting of large ngalis for their use as housing materials (the robust hardwood of the Canarium indicum, although typically not the preferred choice, is occasionally used for building purposes).

Size Class Structure Results
In terms of the size structure results gathered, size classes percentages appear to be more evenly represented within the tambu site than within the areas surveyed were nut harvesting occurs. The latter percentages suggest that the areas sampled are dominated by medium sized ngali trees, perhaps indicative of a history of nurturing seedlings into young adulthood by local residents. Should this assumption be reinforced with future data, the issue of assessing the threat to the surrounding biodiversity from anthropogenic ngali selection and consequentially increased levels of competition will become an important consideration for local harvesters to address.

Recruitment Results
Although it will be difficult to draw any insights into recruitment rates until additional seedling data is collected within survey areas over time, slight density differences between the paired "garden" and "bush" areas may support the argument that healthy seedlings and saplings encountered within harvested areas have a better survival rate than within non-harvested areas, simply because the frequent presence of humans within "garden" areas have scared off potential seedling predators (e.g., wild boar) and actively altered natural conditions to favor the development of small trees into young adults and eventually valuable nut-producing individuals.

Table 4: Density and size class structure results of ngali nut data collected through the Warihito Area surveys.
"habitat" surveyed size class (as determined by trunk diameter in cm) total survey area for each size class # trees observed in survey area tree density (approximate # of trees per hectare) ngali size structure within total population surveyed
"Garden"
(i.e., harvested)
small (0 to 3 cm) 14400 m2 30 21 trees/ha 38 %
medium (3.1 to 30 cm) 18580 m2 48 26 trees/ha 49 %
large (over 30 cm) 18580 m2 12 7 trees/ha 13 %
"Bush"
(i.e., tambu)
small (0 to 3 cm) 7100 m2 18 25 trees/ha 36 %
medium (3.1 to 30 cm) 7100 m2 17 24 trees/ha 34 %
large (over 30 cm) 7100 m2 15 21 trees/ha30 %

Table 5: Density and size class structure results of "garden" data collected through the Wainoni Area surveys.
"habitat" surveyed size class (as determined by trunk diameter in cm) total survey area for each size class # trees observed in survey area tree density (approximate # of trees per hectare) ngali size structure within total population surveyed
"Garden" (i.e., harvested) small (0 to 3 cm) 12,730 m2 42 33 trees/ha 52 %
medium (3.1 to 30 cm) 17,080 m2 25 15 trees/ha 28 %
large (over 30 cm) 17,080 m2 23 14 trees/ha 20 %


As recruitment rates will serve as a key source of information necessary to accurately gauge the sustainability of the nut enterprise over time, the data collected to date on the frequency of young ngali trees encountered within the study area will serve as an important source of baseline data in this regard. It should be acknowledged here that little in relation to ngali recruitment within the project area had been investigated prior to the survey team's activities during May.

Future completion of additional paired replicates within the Warihito area will be necessary to affirm or discredit the level of confidence placed in these preliminary conclusions of the data collected by the survey team to date.

3.1.2 Results from the Wainoni District
Although "garden" surveys were completed within Wainoni, the inability of the survey team to complete sampling within a paired control site consequently prevents the team from comparing the "garden" data set with control information. CID Staff have tentatively planned to facilitate "bush" surveys with local residents within the Naharahau and Nagatare area during late 1996.

Table 5, above, lists abundance and size class structure findings generated through the "garden" surveys conducted in the Wainoni District by the survey team during May and June. Given the differences in both geographical location and habitat type between the Wainoni and Warihito surveys, a discussion comparing data sets between the two areas could not be considered particularly meaningful.

3.1.3 Presentation and Community Interpretation of the Results
Although a more thorough analysis will need to be conducted over all of the baseline data once entirely collected, it is important to point out that easily generated density and size structure values are relatively easy to both calculate and talk about within a community setting, and thus could serve as an effective means of discussing the results of the data collected once the project staff decide to present the survey findings and consequently facilitate a meaningful, participatory interpretation of the complete baseline results.

3.2 What human impacts did the team observe?
During the collection of the biological information, observations regarding the impact of human activity (both in terms of nut harvesting-associated behaviors and other agroforestry activities) on local ngali nut communities was highlighted. A listing of anthropogenic effects observed by the visiting and survey teams on C. indicumwithin "garden" sites (agroforestry systems) is summarized in Table 6, below.

Table 6: Anthropogenic impacts on Canarium indicumwithin "garden" (harvested) sites, as observed by the visiting team during the pilot investigation period. Note that most impacts positively influence the biological functioning of the ngali nut.
Biological function Anthropogenic influence Resulting impact on biology
  • growth
  • periodic clearing of the canopy and understory adjacent to ngali trees (removal of competitors).
  • consistent source of light allows for increased primary production rates.
  • removal of neighboring flora decreases competition for forest floor space and nutrients available in soil.
  • reproduction and phenology
  • periodic clearing of the canopy and understory adjacent to ngali trees (removal of competitors).
  • increased growth rate accelerates maturation and therefore promotes earlier fruit production.
  • increased primary production alters timing and abundance of fruit.
  • fertilization
  • removal of male ngali trees from forest and gardens because seen as unproductive (ngali nuts are dioecious).
  • decreased pollen source for fertilization.
  • decreased local genetic diversity.
  • decreased fruit production?
  • seed dispersal and recruitment (i.e., reproductive competitiveness)
  • periodic clearing of the canopy and understory adjacent to ngali trees (removal of competitors).
  • selective pruning and clearing of understory (avoidance in cutting observed ngali seedlings).
  • planting of ngali nuts in gardens.
  • nurturing of young ngalis into adulthood.
  • increased local recruitment (man becomes primary dispersal agent).
  • decreased seedling dependent mortality rates (increased probability of survival due to removal of competitors).
  • increased regeneration rates in sick or dying seedlings.
  • shade-tolerance and seedling "dormancy" stages avoided.
  • regeneration
  • periodic clearing of canopy & understory adjacent to ngali trees (remove competitors).
  • decreased resistance to the impacts of cyclonic activity due to clearing of the surrounding forest area.
  • 3.3What observations and consequences did the participating community members communicate?
    The community participants clearly recognized the value of the survey activities given their overwhelming enthusiasm and positive feedback regarding the survey process. Most notable were the spontaneous insights and new outlooks by village participants which occurred as a consequence to their actively generating new facts and through comparisons between survey sites. Observations and consequences of survey activities vocalized by participants within both the Warihito and Wainoni area surveys included:

    4. PROCESS CONCLUSIONS AND FOLLOW-UP RECOMMENDATIONS

    4.1 Conclusions Related to the Survey Goal & Objectives
    The visiting and survey teams appear to have successfully achieved identifying, developing, and facilitating a community-based protocol for the periodic collection of key biological information on ngali nuts. As far as the long-term establishment of this protocol is concerned, the CID Project staff voiced their confidence in their ability and willingness to continue the survey process into the project's future.

    Below is a summary of results by objective:

    1. Compile the necessary biological baseline data within the CID project area to monitor the sustainability of ngali nut harvest over time -- Significant progress was made in collection of baseline data within the Warihito and Wainoni geographic areas. Although not all of the control data were able to be obtained within the survey time-frame, the target number of "garden" baseline data (i.e., 90 trees per area) over these two areas was reached. The remainder of the control data over all three geographic areas and treatment data within the Bauro Highlands is reportedly to be collected in the immediate future.

    2. Identify the feasibility and viability of community-based biological monitoring activities within the CID project area -- The biological survey proved that the field implementation and on-site training of survey techniques to local participants is both an obtainable objective and necessary activity. The question now is whether or not these community-based monitoring efforts are viable into the foreseeable future (see § 4.2, below).

    3. Provide on-site technical assistance to the national NGO grantee partner within the biological component of the project and provide capacity building at the local level to participating project communities -- This objective appears to have been reached, particularly given the positive feedback received by BCN since the conclusion of the site visit from CID Staff and participating community members.

    In regards to the additional aims of the visit to the CID Project site, it appears that the objectives have also been successfully met:

    1. Assess the need for further technical assistance within any of the three project components (i.e. biological, socioeconomic, and enterprise) -- Objective completed (see § 4.3.1, below).

    2. Strengthen the working relationships and increase communication between BCN and its grantee partners -- Achieved.

    3. Act upon recommendations outlined within the BCN Mid-Term Evaluation Report -- Progress was made specifically in regard to the recommendation within BCN's Mid-Term Evaluation to more actively support both the community-based collection of biological data and the implementation of monitoring strategies to be completed by local participants. The specifics of the technical support role BCN played while within Makira was facilitated through pre-trip discussions with Chuck Peters, a BCN Mid-Term Evaluator.

    4.2 Conclusions related to Sustainability Issues
    In the opinion of the authors, the key factors affecting the sustainability of the ngali monitoring efforts are:

    4.3 Follow-up Needs and Corresponding Recommendations
    Four recommendations were generated in regard to follow-up activities for the ngali nut baseline studies completed during May/June 1996.

    4.3.1 Need for Continued On-site Technical Support
    Encouragement in the continuation of monitoring activities is a key support consideration for CI, Maruia Society, and BCN to adequately provide. Given the scarcity of trained human resources readily available in Makira which have been given the responsibility to ensure completion of the three dynamic components within the CID Project (i.e., enterprise, socioeconomic, and biological), there is clearly a need for project partners to continue providing steady, on-site technical assistance. At present, this support is most obviously needed within the project's efforts to secure solid market links for both enterprises as well as in assuring that the household survey data be thoroughly analyzed and presented back to the participating communities. In addition, BCN argues that the biological monitoring component (of which the community-based facet which is now in its infancy and thus requires the most nurturing) warrants continued support. Now that the biological monitoring capabilities of local participants and project staff have experienced significant growth, BCN feels that it is critical that there be adequate follow-up support provided to assure sustainability and increase proficiency of monitoring efforts into the project's future. The progress made during the May/June 1996 site visit should continue to be built upon, rather than simply exist as a single phenomenon.

    4.3.2 Need for Analysis of the Baseline Data
    Once all of the necessary biological data has been collected (i.e., completion of the control surveys in the Warihito and Wainoni areas and both surveys in the Bauro Highlands), the most important task will fall upon the project staff to utilize the collected information in a meaningful manner.

    Recommendations on the Analysis
    BCN has proposed a few means of analyzing the ngali data collected (see below, Table 7). Not all of the proposed analyses are appropriate within a community setting, but simple tests of significance, graphs with the data collected plotted accordingly, and even non-technical GIS applications (such as the CISIG tool) are all probable mediums under which project staff could solicit a meaningful, participatory interpretation of collected information by community residents.

    Modelling of the Generated Information
    It is hoped that through some initial guidance, this baseline data can be used as the foundation for a broader growth model, which could in turn allow local harvesters to gain insights into the relationship between the impact of nut harvesting on the age, growth, and future yield of a particular tree. In time, the periodic collection of such data would refine and strengthen the validity of the model. Communicating the utility and specifics of such a model would be an invaluable tool which the CID Programme Staff could share with other project managers and local participants within both the BCN project network and larger environmental community.

    If the Results of the Analyses are Inconclusive
    The intention is that continual collection of regeneration data by local residents and project staff will eventually increase participating communities' understandings of the enterprise-related impacts on the growth, size distribution, recruitment, and seedling abundance of C. indicum. To do so, the data will have to be significant and representative of such impacts. However, it should be acknowledged that the resulting analyses of the data collected may yet prove to be inconclusive and without substantial significance. In the event that analyses conclude that there are no detectable harvesting impacts, then the data must be indicative of one of two possible situations:

    1. The survey techniques employed have failed to detect the regeneration impacts which are present within the system, and thus must be restructured and implemented again (e.g., perhaps there is an overwhelming source of bias or sampling error which has resulted in the collection of false data, or maybe there is simply an inability of the methods used to detect the harvesting impacts on ngali biology).

    2. The harvesting of ngali nuts has no significant impact on the regeneration of local ngali trees.

    Table 7: A few suggested analyses and their respective utility for the collected ngali nut data.
    Who is involved in the analysis? What is being answered ? Proposed Analysis Medium for Display Rationale for Use Management Implications
  • Local communities
  • Does nut harvesting impact ngali regeneration?
  • Discussing initial size class results÷ /plotting collected data (not a test of significance)
  • Tables ÷
  • Plotted graph
  • Scattergrams
  • Easily presented and interpreted; clear graphic representation of differences occurring in natural environment
  • Visual presentation of information effective communication tool; reinforce interest in observing natural system
  • Local communities
  • Does nut harvesting impact ngali regeneration?
  • Correlation or cluster analysis (simple tests of significance)
  • Histogram or scattergram
  • Simplistic enough to be done in the field with communities; quick and relatively straight-forward; conveys the utility in observing the natural environment
  • Utility as a decision-making tool in regard to changing harvest behaviors
  • The external environmental and scientific communities.
  • Is there a statistically significant impact differentiation occurring?
  • Regressions
  • Paired t-tests
  • ANOVA
  • Various
  • Useful in the technical documentation and communication of results to outsiders
  • Communication of results to other project managers, decision-makers, and scientists; use in regional policy agendas
  • Local and external communities.
  • How can we visually present the impacts occurring?
  • Geographic information systems (GIS)
  • Manipulation of data into geographic display; baseline maps; display of habitat types and other important geographic features
  • Visually attractive; powerful in quickly communicating results of data
  • Delimitation of protected areas; project area basemap; regional conservation considerations
  • ÷ For examples of such, see § 3.1 and Tables 4 and 5.

    4.3.3 Need for Community Interpretation of Results and Analysis
    An important consideration in the next steps following the completion of the collection of the necessary baseline data is the presentation of the data back to the communities. This step, arguably the most critical one given the adaptive management context, must be taken relatively soon after the data has been collected to avoid a loss of interest, motivation, and familiarity with the purpose and techniques of such activities. The community involvement in the analysis and interpretation of the data and consequential implications on ngali management and harvest practices will inevitably determine the degree of success and sustainability of the monitoring efforts.

    4.3.4 Recommended Next Steps for Follow-up
    In response to the needs and conclusions stated above, BCN proposes that the following "next steps" occur between the project partners within the several upcoming months to ensure the timely continuation of the community-based monitoring efforts in Makira (note that each of these suggested "steps" are paired with tentative target dates):

    Proposed "Next Step"Proposed Target Date Collaborating Parties
    Completion of the collection of baseline ngali nut regeneration data (i.e., completion of control surveys within Wainoni & Warihito Districts; completion of paired surveys within the Bauro Highlands)
    September through mid-
    to late-October '96
    CID Staff and participating communities
    Initial analysis of the collected baseline data (biological and household surveys) Ongoing through October and November '96 CID Staff, with support by:
  • Julian Ash (?), BCN and CI/Maruia Staff (biological)
  • BCN & CI/Maruia Staff (socioeconomic)
  • Completion of analyses and preparation of results for presentation to participating communities in project area. November '96 or January '97 CID Staff, with on-site support by:
  • BCN & CI/Maruia Staff
  • Presentation of both the socioeconomic (i.e., household survey and ngali nut sales records) and biological (i.e., baseline regeneration data collected to date) results to local communities and management committees. November '96 or January '97 Participating communities & CID Staff, with on-site support by:
  • BCN and CI/Maruia Staff
  • Participatory interpretation exercises and group discussion over the presented results with local communities and management committees. November '96 or January '97 Participating communities & CID Staff, with on-site support by:
  • BCN and CI/Maruia Staff
  • Additional replication of the biological survey November '96 or January '97 Participating communities & CID Staff, with on-site support by:
  • BCN and/or CI/Maruia Staff
  • APPENDIX ONE

    Table 8: Costs (to date) of the survey gear provided by BCN to CID Staff for ngali nut monitoring activities.
    Tools (column 1) Cost Quant. Total Tools (column 2) Cost Quant. Total
    azimuth compass ÷ $ 45.25 4 $181.00
  • flagging tape ÷
  • $ .95 3 roles $ 2.85
    50 m tape measure ÷ $ 47.25 3 $141.75
  • metal tags ÷
  • $ 19.60 2 boxes $ 39.20
    log book ÷ $ 4.95 6 $ 29.70
  • 1 can exterior paint, 3 paint brushes, one coil of wire, 55 m of nylon rope, & two 150 cm tape measures
  • $ 45.001 set$ 45.00
    plastic storage box $ 10.27 3 $ 30.81 TOTAL COST (columns 1 & 2)$529.31
    DBH tape measure ÷ $ 29.50 2 $ 59.00
    ÷ Purchased through Forestry Suppliers Inc., Jackson, Mississippi.


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