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Climate Change
Florida: At the forefront of climate change
America's only coral barrier reef are imperiled due to the impacts of climate change, Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Tortugas Reserve.
© Larry Benvenutti
Florida’s land, water and reefs support thousands of animals and plants, including five species of sea turtles, and nearly 120 endangered, threatened or species of special concern such as the American crocodile, wood stork and West Indian manatee. The state also is home to the world’s third largest coral barrier reef. It shelters more than 18 million full-time residents, and attracts millions of seasonal visitors annually – over 80 million people in 2007 according to Visit Florida (the state’s tourist development agency).
With nearly 1,200 miles of coastline and 95 percent of its population living within 35 miles of that coast, Florida is uniquely vulnerable to climate change. It is not just the environment that will be affected. Three key economic sectors in Florida are directly tied to the health, productivity and beauty of the natural world—agriculture, tourism and fishing. Florida’s economy, as well as its communities and native habitats, will likely sustain heavy damage as the planet’s temperatures and oceans rise in response to human-induced global climate change.
The effects of climate change on Florida
Although the magnitude of the impacts and implications of climate change are not fully known, scientific modeling and research give us reliable information on what we can expect, and how it will affect people, the environment and the economy of Florida
Florida’s population:
According to the study Florida 2060, by the year 2060, Florida’s population will double to approximately 35 million people. In fact, we expect that by the year 2040 nearly 7 million acres of land will be converted from rural or native state to urban uses, and some conservation lands will be completely surrounded by development. Southeast Florida will become mostly urbanized and the only parts of Florida projected to retain significant areas of open space are northwest Florida and the Big Bend.
Sea Level Rise: According to a 2007 Tufts University study, sea levels around Florida may rise over 11inches by 2025, 23 inches by 2050, and by over 45 inches by 2100 unless drastic reductions are made in U.S. and global greenhouse gas emissions. It is expected that by 2060, nine percent of Florida’s land area (4,700 square miles) may be submerged by these increases, with extensive flooding in Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties. Sea level increases of this magnitude will have myriad implications, both for natural systems and people
- Impacts of sea level rise on natural systems: Sea level rise will take a disproportionate toll on coastal wetlands, which filter pollution, mitigate storm impacts on developed areas, and serve as vital habitat to unique plant and animal species (particularly during critical life stages of many fish and shellfish) . According to the Tufts University report, two thirds of the area that is vulnerable to inundation from climate change within Florida constitutes wetland (marsh, tidal flats, swamps, mangroves and wetland forest), which would either be completely flooded, or too deeply covered by salt water to sustain existing vegetation. One third of Florida’s marshlands are projected to be flooded, along with 99 percent of the state’s mangroves!
- Impacts of sea level rise on people: Rising seas will also have immediate impacts on coastal communities, business and infrastructure. According to the Tufts University study, residential real estate valued at $130 billion would be submerged by a sea level rise of 27 inches, and one tenth of Florida’s current population would likely face relocation. Although it might physically be possible to erect levees, dikes, or other flood control structures to protect some facilities and communities from rising seas, the Miami-Dade County Climate Change Task Force noted that the County’s porous limestone and sand substrate may limit the effectiveness of traditional levees and dikes. Flood and homeowners insurance for some residents may accordingly become too costly, or impossible to obtain. Sea level rise will also likely increase the salinity of coastal aquifers, which could exacerbate already tense disputes over water supplies in times of drought.
Precipitation and Water Supplies: Although Florida receives plentiful amounts of rainfall—about 60 inches annually—evaporation rates are quite high and rainfall totals from year to year are highly variable. Droughts and floods are fairly common and competition for water is already a politically charged issue. According to the U.S. EPA, the warmer temperatures associated with climate change may increase the evaporation rates, increase the variability of rainfall totals, increase saltwater intrusion into coastal wells and decrease the overall availability of fresh water in Florida, particularly in the summer. The recent report on climate change and Florida from Tufts University predicts that annual rainfall totals could decrease by as much as 10 percent within the state, and that drought conditions could actually become more frequent even in years where there are higher annual rainfall totals. The precipitation that does fall may be in more intense bursts, leading to increased risks from floods.
Wildfires: Although scientists once believed that the recent increase in U.S. wildfires was fueled by poor forest management practices, some scientist now believe that climate change may be the principal driver of these cataclysmic events. Not only is climate change promoting hotter, drier summers in many parts of the country—conditions that turn forests into virtual tinderboxes—but it also has promoted the spread of certain species of tree-eating insects that kill trees and fill dry forests with dead wood. A 2006 study in Nature concluded that there has been a four-fold increase in major U.S wildfires since 1986 (compared with the period 1970-1985), and a six-fold increase in the acreage of forest burned during the same time period. While the most spectacular of these fires have been in the western United States and Alaska, it stands to reason that heavily forested portions of Florida might also become more susceptible to wildfires if climate change affects rainfall patterns, increases the frequency and intensity of droughts, and expands the distribution of insect species. Wildfires cost at least $600 million in damage to Florida in 1998, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including both losses of residential property, declines in tourist revenue and increases in emergency room visits for respiratory ailments.
More frequent, more severe natural disasters: Although natural disasters have already take a disproportionately heavy toll on the southeast, climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters (heat waves, droughts, tropical storms and hurricanes), and well as to increase the amount of damage they actually inflict. A 2000 report from the U.S Global Change Research Program noted that more than half of the nation’s costliest weather-related disasters occurred in the Southeast during the last 20 years. Those disasters cost the region over $85 billion in damages. The most active hurricane season on record was also very recent: the 2005 season caused more than 2,000 deaths and record damages of over $128 billion.
Since 95 percent of Florida’s population lives within 35 miles of the coast, more frequent and intense tropical storms will directly impact millions, affecting not only the availability and cost of flood and homeowners’ insurance, but also the long-term viability, stability and safety of coastal communities. Longer, more frequent heat waves will also affect everyone, but certain groups more forcefully: the elderly - 17 percent of Florida’s population if over 65 years of age - are more vulnerable than other groups to heat-related deaths and illnesses, while lower income residents are also disproportionately susceptible since these individuals and families often cannot afford to properly insulate or air condition their homes. Heat waves already inflict a great deal of suffering and damage— the extensive heat waves and droughts in 1998 produced more than $6 billion in damages and 200 deaths —but these impacts will likely worsen as temperatures rise statewide.
Hotter lands, air and water, all the time: Even without a traditional “heat wave,” climate change will make Florida’s residents, towns, air and water warmer ALL the time. Although different climate change models produce different ranges of projected temperature change, most predict that Florida may become 3-10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2100 because of climate change, which would produce a July heat index that is at least 15 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than today! Temperatures like that will increase concentrations of ground-level ozone; expand the range of insect pests, increase the potential for transmission of tropical diseases like dengue fever and malaria; and increase the frequency and prevalence of toxic algae blooms, marine-bourne illnesses and shellfish poisoning.
Climate change is an enormous threat to Florida’s environment, economy and way of life. As the world's conservation leader, and with more than a decade of successful work in Florida on diverse issues like Everglades restoration, growth management, marine conservation and protection of water quality, WWF is uniquely positioned to help Florida formulate and implement effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Read more on WWF's climate work in Florida.
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