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Climate Change
Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Florida
Climate change may affect crop yields, the distribution of agricultural pests, and the availability of water for irrigation
© Steven Morello
Agriculture
Florida is home to more than 42,000 commercial farms, which utilize nearly 10 million acres and produce more than 280 different crops on a commercial basis. Although it is the nation’s ninth-ranking agricultural state in terms of overall production, Florida is the nation’s
- Leading producer of oranges, grapefruit, tangerines, sugarcane, snap beans, tomatoes, cucumbers, bell peppers, squash and watermelon
- Second largest producer of sweet corn, strawberries, greenhouse and nursery products
- Fourth largest producer of honey
State-wide, the agricultural sector employs 2 million people, and together with forestry, constitutes the state’s second most important industry. Revenues from and productivity in this sector could be heavily impacted by climate change due to the expected
- Rise in sea levels. If seas rise 27 inches by 2060, as predicted by the Tufts University study, 7,000 acres of citrus groves and 26,000 acres of other farmland will be inundated
- Increase in the volatility of the weather such as droughts, floods and severe tropical storms, which can damage trees, crops, and the infrastructure that support them
- Increase in terrestrial temperatures
- New pest and weed species
- Threat to the quality, quantity and availability of fresh water - fresh water supplies are already a major area of conflict across south Florida, and these conflicts are expected to worsen in the decades to come.
Although Florida’s crops may benefit from climate change in the short term—rising temperatures might mean fewer winter freezes for some fruits and vegetables—the long-term trend is less favorable for agriculture. Some plants may be pushed outside their optimal temperature ranges (oranges, tomatoes), while others may suffer reduced yields as carbon dioxide concentrations increase (sugarcane). The need for irrigation may also increase among Florida’s farmers for higher temperatures will increase evaporation and wick moisture out of the soil, at just the time when rainfall totals are projected to decrease. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that these trends could be particularly damaging for citrus and sugarcane, which require 5-7 percent more water for each degree of mean temperature increase, while they might actually improve the yields of crops like cotton and sorghum.
© Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary
Fishing
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, which conducts the National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife Associated Recreation every five years, Florida was the nation’s number one recreational fishing destination in 2006. Florida waters not only provided 46.3 million days of recreational fishing that year, but the sector provided more than 75,000 jobs and produced $4.4 million in income. Commercial fishing produced a smaller number of jobs but significant income for Florida: $576 million in economic impact and 9,700 jobs in 2007 according to the Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.
Climate change has the potential to affect fish stocks and their habitats in several ways:
- Alter the temperature, salinity, clarity, water levels, oxygen content, and freshwater inflows to and in estuaries, bays, and lagoons, which may degrade their ability to serve as high quality fish habitat. (Altered temperature and oxygen content in these areas may also promote eutrophication—excessive plant growth in water that is linked to seagrass dieoffs, sponge deaths, algae blooms, and fisheries declines.)
- Increase occurrences of coral bleaching and death, a key concern since reefs are critical habitat for many commercially and recreationally valuable fish species.
- Degrade other habitats that fish and shellfish rely on. Nearly 90 percent of Florida’s most valuable recreational and commercial fish and shellfish species spend at least part of their life cycle in sea grass meadows, salt marshes, mangroves and other estuarine habitats, which are expected to be heavily impacted by climate change.
If those challenges are not enough for marine life and aquatic systems, scientist project that climate change may also affect the availability and abundance of prey species and the incidence of disease among coral and other marine species. It may boost the frequency and severity of red tides—toxic algae blooms that spread rapidly when ocean temperatures warm, and that can harm fish, wildlife and people. In 2005, summer and fall water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico were the highest on record, contributing to the state’s worst red tide outbreak ever. Nearly the entire coastline was affected, resulting in the death of fish, invertebrates, manatees, dolphins and sea turtles.
Finally, the survival, growth, and migration routes of fish stocks, especially those already stressed by overfishing, may be drastically impacted by the predicted increase in major climatic events, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillations (ENSO). ENSO events have been shown to cause temporary range shifts, as well as to alter reproduction, biomass and schooling behavior.
Read more about WWF’s work in fishing (link to fishing section)
Scientist predict that 99 percent of Monroe County, including all the Florida Keys, could be under water by 2060 due to sea level rise from climate change
© Jeff Foott
Tourism
Given its tropical temperatures, azure waters, and wide, sandy beaches, it is easy to understand why tourism is Florida’s largest industry. More than 84.6 million people visited Florida in 2006, according to Visit Florida (the state’s tourist development agency), and generated nearly $65 billion in direct revenue (more than 10 percent of the state’s Gross Domestic Product), and an additional $4.5 billion in tax revenues. Even greater numbers of visitors are projected for the future. Florida Tax Watch (an organization that tracks government accountability) projects that by 2010, 97 million people will visit Florida annually, producing an estimated economic impact of $103-136 billion, and 1.5-1.8 million jobs.
Since many of the activities visitors pursue in Florida are nature based—snorkeling, fishing, boating, scuba diving, wildlife and bird watching, even sitting on sandy beaches—changes to Florida’s habitats and climate will directly affect revenues and visits from inside and outside the state. A recent study by Tufts University estimated that tourist revenues might drop by $9 billion by 2025, $40 billion by 2050, and $167 billion by 2100 if the U.S. and Florida take a “business as usual” attitude to greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue to escalate at present rates, 4,700 square miles of land within Florida may be inundated at high tide by 2060, including the great majority of Florida’s large barrier islands, nearly 50 percent of Florida’s existing beaches, a sizeable chunk of the southern Everglades, and 1,362 hotels and motels. According to the study, Florida may be “nearly devoid of beaches” by 2100 if sea levels rise the projected 45 inches, and many of its treasured marine resources may be “destroyed or severely degraded.”
Temperature increases may also make it less attractive for people to pursue outdoor recreation—average July and August temperatures in Miami may reach 97 degrees Fahrenheit, too warm for golf, sitting on the beach or visiting parks and wildlife refuges— and more frequent storms may damage tourist destinations, or simply scare projected tourists away in peak hurricane months (July- November).
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