If you rotate a globe and look straight down at the circumpolar Arctic, you’ll get a whole new perspective of the world. You’ll see the vast coastlines of Russia and Canada, and the northern reaches of Alaska, Greenland and the Scandinavian countries.

This region of the world came to mind as I read Nassim Taleb’s book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Taleb argues that we manage so much of our lives, economies and investments in probability, when in fact great historical moments—from stock market crashes to the success of Google to changes in the planet’s ecosystems—are unpredictable. He refers to these as “Black Swan” events.

Indeed, the biggest Black Swan moment in recent years is the melting of Arctic sea ice. While scientific models predicted that we would lose sea ice in the next half century, scientists’ jaws dropped last summer when more than 1 million square miles of the Arctic ice cap disappeared. And we might lose all of the summer sea ice in the next 5 to 10 years. Black Swans, according to Taleb, have enormous impact, and disappearing Arctic sea ice is no exception. As it shrinks, the world’s greatest pristine wilderness could be lost to new forces such as mining, shipping, and oil and gas development. And beyond the Arctic, a meltdown will accelerate global warming, affect weather patterns and cause sea levels to rise, threatening low-lying areas around the globe.

As the only nongovernmental organization with a presence in all of the Arctic countries, WWF has a unique responsibility to protect this immense ecosystem. That’s why we’re launching an Arctic network initiative, which includes reducing the emissions of industrialized countries, as well as focusing global efforts on reducing the other dramatic effects of climate change. We’re working with local communities to document the effects of climate change and helping key countries anticipate and adapt to changes that are already occurring.

In the United States, we need to make sure there are strong environmental controls in place before proceeding with the $2.6 billion worth of drilling rights that the Bush administration just auctioned off in the Chukchi Sea. It’s obvious that the polar bear should be listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. And any new offshore development in the Arctic should be contingent on developing the governance and technology to close the ‘response gap’—our ability to respond to small and large incidents and oil spills, as well as insuring that overall cumulative impacts do not put biodiversity and communities at risk.

The Arctic could be the most endangered place on Earth. As Taleb points out, it is the uncertainties around climate change that compel us to insure against the worst possible consequences for both the Arctic and to our planet—predicted or unforeseen.