ReThink Food
Agriculture production trends in Brazil, the EU/UK, and the US in 2026
© Shaun Martin
Innovation and diversification are essential for resilient food systems as environmental risks and climate change reshape agriculture. Market concentration of key inputs creates efficiency but can heighten vulnerability. So for 2026, some questions to consider are how to adapt strategically in a changing environment, and how to prioritize resilience and innovation. How does this play out in Brazil and the EU and UK — two extremes in the food system?
Brazil’s ag sector grew in 2025, but tariffs, political tensions, climate change, and trouble in the farm economy are creating headwinds for 2026. Yet, production is expected to reach record highs again in 2026 according to a Rabobank outlook report. The backdrop for this: ongoing trade issues, low commodity prices, smaller margins, and volatility due to the Brazilian election in late 2026. Some issues will fix themselves, e.g., the US will be hard pressed to find alternatives to Brazil for sources of coffee as well as beef, due to US production issues and supply constraints in other beef-exporting countries. China, for example, has limited its Brazilian beef imports to 1.1 million metric tons (MT).
Brazil is facing rising input costs and lower commodity prices, while average interest rates there are 15%, compared to 3.5-3.75% in the US. This affects margins in Brazil but also the amount of money farmers are willing to borrow. This doesn’t affect the largest, wealthiest farms as much it does those that don’t have deep cash reserves. And those that have leveraged themselves through debt now have to address that issue; Chapter 11 bankruptcy impacts are already increasing. Soy production is expected to grow 2% this year with another record harvest (177 million MT) projected; record production, of course, would put downward pressure on prices.
© Shutterstock / StockMediaSeller
Want more content like this?
Subscribe to the WWF Markets Institute's weekly ReThink Food newsletter
Susbscribe nowMeanwhile, eating less meat is putting billions of EU farm investments at risk. Investing now to remain competitive will likely not be fruitful if production declines going forward. Even though technically useful, such investments lose value and become stranded assets. In the EU and UK, most farm investments (78%) are in animal agriculture (€158 billion) and feed (€100 billion). The issue is that some portion of this funding will have to be written off if the current system transitions at speed and scale to new models of production.
There is a similar issue with traders’ infrastructure investments, which tend to give them less flexibility to be innovative and move to other regions. We have seen this with investments for soy infrastructure in the Amazon as well as in southeast Brazil. Put another way, once investments are made, those investors will not want to walk away from them.
Over the past decade the biggest efficiencies have been seen in China, India, and Brazil, with the EU and US lagging behind — even though after China, the EU and US have given the most support to farmers and the latter two are first and third with regard to government spending on R&D. Microclimates are shifting for optimal production faster than farmers. Only four companies control 56% of all seeds and 61% of all pesticides; getting them to respond will be difficult.
-Jason
Jason Clay, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Markets Institute at WWF and Senior Vice President of WWF’s Markets & Food Team. Before joining WWF in 1999, Jason ran a family farm, taught at Harvard and Yale, worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and spent more than 25 years working with human rights and environmental organizations.
© WWF-US/Keith Arnold