The coming conflicts at the top of the world

As climate change alters the Arctic's environment and geopolitical stability, WWF's new report offers a roadmap to conservation and security

Arctic building in snow

Rapid climate crisis-driven changes are underway in the Arctic that will not only alter the pristine environment but redefine geopolitical stability at the top of the world. A new analysis from WWF offers data-driven insights into the challenges ahead and a roadmap for global cooperation at the intersection of conservation and security.

The Arctic Conflict Case Study, from WWF and partners, is based on historical data from 2000 to 2023, revealing that most conflicts in the Arctic have stemmed from disputes over access to fishing grounds, perceived or actual changes in the health of fish stocks, and broader changes in the marine environment.

The analysis is part of a global initiative – Oceans Futures – aimed at identifying, understanding, and preventing future conflicts over fisheries resulting from climate change-driven fish migration, which will have profound impacts on nature, people, and global stability.

A Brewing Storm for Arctic Fisheries

As Arctic ice melts at an alarming rate, an ocean that was once capped by ice throughout the year is now opening up to new possibilities. The Arctic Ocean's diminishing sea ice extent, with an almost 13% reduction per decade, is not just a sign of climatic upheaval but a prelude to intensifying conflicts over newfound resources.

Historically, fisheries conflict has increased 20-fold in recent decades with climate change projected to shift a quarter of all fish stocks to cooler waters and across international borders within the next decade, the situation could worsen, positioning fish to be the next resource to drive geopolitical competition.

Unlike other global regions where diminishing stocks lead to increased conflict, the Arctic is experiencing disputes over changing and moving fisheries populations and the arrival of new species. And tensions are already rising in the Bering Sea, especially over the pollock fishery that straddles the U.S. and Russian border.

Alaska’s pollock fishery, valued at nearly US$2 billion annually and providing nearly 30,000 U.S. jobs, is facing pressure. Without proactive measures, the situation could worsen, potentially resulting in fish wars in the Arctic.

A Stacked Solution Set

To address this concerning trend, collaboration across sectors and with a diverse set of partners is foundational. It is essential to leverage science to better understand climate-driven fish migration and its impacts. WWF-US is collaborating with the world’s top science, research, and data partners to offer predictive analytics for early warning, strategic planning, and preventative solutions. Partners include the Environmental Defense Fund, HUB Ocean, the International Caucus Foundation, and Ode partners.

Local leadership and adequate resources are also key to successful solutions. WWF is developing projects in the U.S. Arctic under the Marine Cultural Heritage Zones initiative, including the recently announced Arctic Community Wildlife Grants program, with a focus on locally-led efforts.

The seafood industry, and those who finance and insure them, must be part of the solution. This necessitates the development of climate-smart fisheries solutions, the integration of blue food security across development and other sectors, and the advancement of innovative technologies for fisheries, including improved traceability.

Effective multilateral cooperation in the Arctic is critical, including, improving fish stocks, reducing illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and ultimately mitigating the potential for conflict. Environmental peacebuilding can also play a role in facilitating cooperation, utilizing the factors that drive fisheries conflict for positive outcomes. For example, despite heightened tensions due to the war in Ukraine, Norway and Russia reached an agreement on fishing quotas for 2023 in the Barents Sea. Cooperation must continue albeit in difficult geopolitical times.

Fisheries management negotiations can enable peaceful collaboration and diplomacy in the right circumstances. In the Arctic, this could include proactive protection of the marine environment, development of fisheries management programs that are informed by and adjust to ecosystem change, and protection of food and job security in subsistence fishing communities. For example, negotiations in the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries agreement, a legally binding instrument, present an opportunity. Monitoring and mitigation measures are currently in development; the proposed exploratory fishing should have an independent review of the plans and data that result from them, timely and complete reporting, and independent international observers on board.

New Partnerships and Capacities are Needed

The United States Congress has recognized IUU fishing as a national security challenge due to its economic and national security implications. Several U.S. government agencies, including the U.S. Department of State, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Coast Guard, among other agencies throughout the U.S. government, are working with international partners to address this challenge.

One immediate step to boost the efforts would be for the U.S. Congress to provide funding for existing laws, such as the Maritime SAFE Act adopted in 2019.

Addressing IUU fishing requires more than diplomatic and economic efforts. The U.S. Coast Guard has identified crime and conflict related to fisheries as the most urgent global maritime security challenge, surpassing piracy. To combat this maritime threat, the U.S. military, in collaboration with international partners, should include countering IUU fishing and crime as one of its authorized mission sets, including expanding ship ride agreements for the U.S. Coast Guard. This would enable capacity building and cooperation in the Arctic and globally.

These efforts, along with conservation, diplomatic, and economic initiatives, would have a normative deterrence impact on IUU fishing, improve our understanding of illegal fishing activities, and help prevent threats to the United States and global stability.

We Must Get it Right in the Arctic

Natural resource conflict has been part of history for thousands of years. It always has dire consequences. We have a chance to get it right in the Arctic. If we do not, the people who call the Arctic home will suffer, nature will be harmed at scale, and geopolitical tensions will rise. There is another path that includes deploying smart natural resource management tools, building collaborative governance, and de-escalating competition over resources at the top of the world.

Johan Bergenas is WWF's Senior Vice President of Oceans

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