What are NDCs and why do they matter for climate action?

In 2015, the world came together to sign the Paris Agreement, the first truly global commitment to action on climate. The landmark agreement allows each country to set its own emission reduction targets and adopt its own strategies for reaching them, a truly country-driven approach. These commitments, called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, represent each country’s plan for how to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. Most experts agree that in order to minimize global climate impacts, we must reach a global goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The process: How do NDCs work?

What makes the Paris Agreement different from most international agreements is that it allows each country to decide its own best approach to reaching the target reductions, and acknowledges that every nation has its own strengths and challenges when it comes to reducing emissions. Consequently, each country that agreed to the Paris Agreement submitted its own plan for how it would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 roughly a year after the Paris Agreement was adopted.

Last year, during the COP28 climate negotiations, the parties to the Paris Agreement assessed the results of the first global stocktake, which is an accounting of how the world is making progress against our collective goals under the Paris Agreement. The bottom line? We’re nowhere near where we should be. Current NDC execution has managed to put us on a trajectory to hit 2.5C to 2.9C degrees of planetary warming, which is well above the level we need to maintain life as we know it. 

With the first global stock take completed, parties to the Paris Agreement will be submitting a new round of NDCs from now through early 2025. The Paris Agreement requires countries to deliver NDCs that increase in ambition over time. This “ratcheting” mechanism is one of the key features of the Paris Agreement. NDCs should have plans to close the global emissions gap and collectively achieve 43% reductions by 2030 and 60% reductions by 2035, compared to 2019, and net-zero emissions by 2050. But these reductions will not look the same for all economies. For instance, developed countries are expected to reach net-zero targets sooner, with the understanding that fossil-fuel-based emerging markets will take longer and have fewer resources to transition.

The goal: Why are NDCs important?

The NDCs are important for two reasons. First, they represent a country’s commitment and plan to addressing carbon pollution and reducing emissions. Second, they provide a concrete way to measure progress and hold countries accountable.

The future: What do we want to see in the next NDCs?

WWF advocates for NDCs to be developed through inclusive, transparent actions, contain or move toward economy-wide absolute targets, and contain detailed sectoral targets. They should also include all parts of society in a way that is just and addresses environmental justice. For example, many communities across the United States, often Black and brown communities, have experienced higher rates of pollution and fewer investments in clean energy and resilience than their wealthier neighbors. By applying a climate and environmental justice lens to the NDC, we can right that wrong and make sure that all communities benefit from the green economic transition. This also means including city, state, tribal, business and community experiences in the NDC by actively engaging partners. Put more simply, the NDCs should aim to transform the entirety of the country’s economy and should bring everyone to the table to provide input towards the NDC goals.

Additionally, WWF supports NDCs that have mitigation plans to close the global emissions gap and collectively achieve 43% reductions by 2030 and 60% reductions by 2035, compared to 2019, and net-zero emissions by 2050. This must be based on a just transition away from fossil fuels and other high emissions activities, and universal access to renewable energy.

As people from 189 countries, from governments, civil society organizations, and companies, descend upon Baku, Azerbaijan for COP29, the coming slate of new NDCs under the Paris Agreement will be on everyone’s minds. Countries will look to other governments to see how ambitious they will be. We encourage countries to lead and be bold. That is ultimately what will determine if we are able to address the climate crisis at the scale and with the urgency that the science demands. What countries are willing to commit to will be important to understanding what kind of climate future we will be facing.