Big Data

And while the African savanna elephant is officially listed as endangered, numbers in KAZA appear to be stable or increasing. Past survey data indicates that around 220,000 roam this biologically rich landscape. That’s about one six-ton herbivore per square mile—or one for every 12 people living in KAZA.

“It’s a lot of people,” says Bollmann, “and it’s a lot of wildlife.”

With agriculture, homes, and kids going to school, interactions aren’t always as benign as an elephant lolling in the garden. “Human-wildlife conflict is a real problem,” she says, “with sometimes severe consequences.”

When the five countries established KAZA in 2011, they envisioned conservation and tourism driving the region’s economy, with communities playing a critical role as both stewards and beneficiaries of wildlife. But coordinating conservation efforts across this immense landscape and among multiple countries is an ongoing challenge.

Exacerbating that challenge has been a lack of reliable data about wildlife populations. “Without a good understanding of where the elephants are, and what their numbers are, you’re planning in the dark,” Bollmann says.

In 2022, she was part of a team that set out to help fill that knowledge gap. As the program manager of the KAZA Secretariat, the entity charged with administering the countries’ shared agenda, she helped facilitate a monumental effort to determine the number and seasonal distribution of savanna elephants in KAZA.

With technical and financial input from WWF, and with support from a global pool of donors and partners (see page 28), in August 2022 a 47-person team—including pilots, biologists, and data analysts—launched what they hoped would be a definitive aerial survey.

As Bollmann well knew, pulling it off would be no small feat. “Honestly,” she says, “I’m 41, and I have developed two white hairs since I joined KAZA. One of them is from the beginning of the survey.”

When it comes to protecting the largest viable and contiguous population of elephants in Africa, the KAZA partner countries “do not take lightly the responsibility they carry for— and on behalf of—the rest of the world,” says Nyambe Nyambe, executive director of the KAZA Secretariat, adding that the goal is “a thriving, wild population.”

Meeting that responsibility requires addressing a host of issues—not least, ensuring elephants have room to roam. The largest land mammals on Earth often range over huge distances, oblivious to national borders as they search for water, food, and mates. Because they need so much space, landscape-level planning and transboundary cooperation among KAZA’s countries are essential to the species’ survival—and that of many other species, too.

Having up-to-date population numbers—as well as a clearer picture of when and where the animals move, especially between protected areas—will enable better coordination and allow partner countries to make more informed decisions, says Nyambe.

The last major elephant survey in Africa took place from 2013 to 2016. Known as the Great Elephant Census (GEC), it was audacious in scope, involving more than 90 scientists and 286 crew members representing 18 countries.

The census painted a broad-strokes picture of astonishing loss, identifying a 30% decline in the total savanna elephant population across the continent in just seven years—largely a result of poaching for elephant ivory, human-wildlife conflict, and war. Even in KAZA, the largest savanna elephant stronghold, researchers found pockets of what they called “catastrophic” declines: The Sebungwe Region of northwest Zimbabwe, for example, suffered a 75% loss between 2006 and 2014.

The survey was planned as a two-year project. (“A plan is nothing; planning is everything,” quips Taylor.) By October 2019, the team had developed its design, but the COVID-19 pandemic soon wreaked havoc on the timeline. Once it was safe to move forward, the organizing partners realized they’d need to hit the ground running to complete the count in 2022. Though the surveying would last only two months, timing was key. In July 2022, the team led a weeklong workshop to select and train observers.

“We were working against a tight timeline linked to the weather and climatic conditions,” Nyambe explains. In the dry months of August, September, and October, most trees and shrubs are leafless, making it easier to see wildlife from the air. Moreover, when it’s dry, normally peripatetic pachyderms mostly stay put around permanent water sources. When the first rains come, however, seasonal pans are replenished, luring them to fresh water and forage, and “elephants start moving all over the place,” Nyambe says.

Toward the end of the dry season, strong winds and bush fires in Zimbabwe’s Sebungwe Region generally create poor visibility and extremely hazardous flying conditions. But on August 22, 2022, it was calm and clear as a six-seater Cessna 206 bush plane took to the skies about an hour after sunrise from an airstrip near Matusadona National Park.

The pilot did his best to hug the rugged terrain below, balancing safety with optimal height for viewing elephants. Two observers called out sightings—creating an audio recording over the voice-triggered intercom—while a fourth crew member logged them using a GPS unit and handwritten notes. The plane returned safely to the airstrip at 11 am sharp.

Over the next several weeks, a series of carefully synchronized, often simultaneous, flights traversed the expanse of the KAZA landscape, from Botswana’s Okavango Delta to Zambia’s Kafue National Park and Victoria Falls. As the planes flew above scrubby savannas, vast grasslands, and snaking rivers, each crew followed a rigorous and methodical approach.

Below: Views during one flight over Bwabwata National Park in northeastern Namibia.

For those involved in the survey, anticipating obstacles and responding to setbacks often felt like playing a game of Whac-A-Mole. Data might be corrupted or poorly recorded, meaning extra work in the ops room to validate it. Potential mechanical failures, meanwhile, were always top of mind.

“A couple of days’ downtime because you’ve got an aircraft engine problem, or a propeller problem, or an alternator problem? ... You can’t afford to lose those days,” says Taylor.

Another challenge: ensuring all five KAZA partner countries were kept well-informed so they could provide input and approvals along the way. Bollmann explains that it was crucial at each step to get five yeses to ensure everyone remained fully supportive as plans evolved.

Given the vagaries of weather and wildlife, flexibility and adaptability were crucial, and their detailed plan anticipated challenges, allowing for go and no-go moments.

“We were prepared to say, ‘If this is not done by this day, then we cannot proceed,’” says Nyambe. “There were challenges, trust me. But everybody rallied together. The level of cooperation was amazing.”

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