New study highlights the positive impacts of black rhino conservation on population recovery

The conversation surrounding the conservation of an endangered species can often be disheartening, painting a grim picture of human impact.

But, what if we could flip the script?

Enter the IUCN Green List: A revolutionary approach that celebrates species recovery and ecological functionality, showcasing the positive power of conservation efforts. Unlike the Red List, which assesses species’ extinction risk, the Green List looks at the recovery of species’ populations and measures their conservation success.

Red light, green light: assessing rhino recovery in a new way

Black rhinos (Diceros bicornis), classified as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List, saw their population plummet from 100,000 to less than 2,400 in the mid-20th century due to hunting, poaching, and habitat loss. While often portrayed melancholically to promote conservation, a new study in the African Journal of Wildlife Research, co-authored by WWF-KAZA's Mike Knight, helps inform the formal Green Status of black rhinos, which will launch in October 2024. The evaluation includes whether the species is present, viable, and performing its ecological functions in all parts of its range. The study highlights the recovery progress of black rhinos and emphasizes the importance of ongoing conservation initiatives.

Researchers evaluated rhino conservation efforts using four key measures: Conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential. Researchers analyzed data on four black rhino subspecies since 1970 to quantify these metrics.

Based on their analyses, the researchers quantified the effect of each conservation impact on the black rhino population: Without past interventions, only 296 individuals would exist in 2022 instead of the actual 6,487. If conservation stopped now, the population would drop to 3,354 by 2032, but with continued efforts, it could reach 8,943. Long-term, the population could potentially grow to 14,465 by 2122. These figures demonstrate the critical importance of ongoing conservation, showing that 3,133 rhinos currently depend on these efforts, and continued work could yield a gain of 2,456 rhinos in the next decade.

Knowing the numbers: what this means for black rhinos

The researchers’ comprehensive approach yielded an assessment of past conservation impacts, predictions on short-term outcomes with and without continued efforts, and projections of long-term population recovery potential, offering valuable insights into the effectiveness of rhino conservation strategies and future possibilities.

The study reveals the ongoing human impact on black rhino recovery. In 1880, Africa had 113,000 black rhinos, but by 2122, projections suggest a maximum of only 21,000—just 18.6% of the 1880 population. This decline stems from habitat loss, poaching, and climate change. In fact, 55% of black rhinos’ historic range has been lost since 1970.

Currently, the majority of the African black rhino population inhabits government-protected areas; the rest are protected on private reserves/properties and some on communal lands. Under the current threat of poaching, rhinos need further expansion of their range, which will largely be borne by conservation on private and communal lands.

Furthermore, rhino poaching to supply the illegal international market for rhino horn remains the most important immediate threat, causing a significant reduction in rhino birth rates and calf survival. In fact, studies show that losing breeding females particularly harms both current and future populations. To maximize rhino recovery potential, conservation efforts must focus on habitat protection and range expansion, engaging private landowners and communities, and, crucially, eliminating the illegal wildlife trade.

Takeaways

The Green List status metrics used in this study evaluate both the negative impact of human activities on rhino populations and the positive effects of our conservation efforts, including potential future benefits. Although black rhinos are still classified as Critically Endangered, this research indicates a promising potential for recovery. All indications are that our conservation strategies have been effective and underscores the importance of continuing to implement well-informed conservation management practices, together with state, private and communal actors, to further support the recovery of these remarkable animals.