What's next after COP29?

This year’s COP in many ways proved difficult to pin down. Branded as the “Finance COP,” the final decision was decidedly mixed. A much-anticipated announcement on the commitment to a new climate finance goal came together in the wee hours after COP29 was slated to end, providing a target of $300 billion in annual mobilized finance by 2035 by developed countries to help developing countries transition to clean energy and combat the impacts of climate change. However, many in the Global South felt disappointed in this result given the number required for them to address climate change by 2035 is estimated at over $1 trillion per year. While not clearly defined, the language of the agreement provides an opportunity for private sector finance and market mechanisms to generate additional capital to close the gap in needed finance.

The second big, “finance” provision coming out of COP29 was the approval of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, covering the creation of a UN-regulated carbon market. Again, many were not satisfied with the result, although after many years of delays, it is positive to see any agreement on Article 6. To strengthen the Article 6 agreement in the future, guardrails are critical to ensure tangible impacts that move the needle on climate mitigation and maximize the benefits to people and nature. A well-functioning Article 6 mechanism, one that ensures transparency, fairness, and equitable participation, is an important first step.

There was a great deal of anxiety and uncertainty about future leadership for climate action on the global stage. Many discussed their fears that the U.S. would pull out of the Paris Agreement next year and even withdraw its participation in the UNFCCC. Argentina’s delegation was summoned home early in the first week of the negotiations, raising the specter of more countries stepping away. Many activists, citing the prevalence of big oil and corporate influence at the climate COP, skipped the event altogether. They chose to attend an alternative event in Oaxaca, Mexico that sought to create unity between climate activists and land defense movements. Despite the COP having more attendees than anticipated (over 60,000, making it the second largest COP after last year in Dubai), the uncertainties about the future created an atmosphere that was much more subdued than in previous years, with less excitement and optimism.

One bright spot came on November 20, when fifteen parties to the Paris Agreement announced a commitment to reduce emissions at a consistent and steady rate or better by 2050. This leadership in ambition came from high-emitting countries including the European Union, United Kingdom, UAE, and Brazil. Unfortunately, the United States was not one of the fifteen. However, the America Is All In leadership, which represents subnational climate leaders at the state, city, tribal and corporate level, welcomed the commitment and indicated that U.S. subnational partners would remain in the fight.

As it has before, America Is All In made a strong showing of the vibrancy of US climate action at the state and local levels, and the possibility of continued US climate action that this commitment by subnational actors represents for reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. Governor Inslee, a co-chair of America Is All In, highlighted electoral success in the State of Washington through the defeat of a ballot initiative to unwind Washington’s signature climate law. State secretaries and mayors joined All In to engage international counterparts in China, highlighting the importance of subnational exchanges and cooperation. And America Is All In is poised to engage the COP30 presidency, which will seek to prioritize subnational climate leadership through its climate federalism agenda.

While such declarations from subnational leaders can create an important moment, unless the words are transformed quickly into action, they will mean very little. The final COP letter punted on providing anything to advance language from last year’s decision about "transitioning away" from fossil fuels, or to address the results of the Global Stocktake. Delegations to the COP chose to leave those matters for COP30 next year in Brazil. We must stop pushing key decisions down the road. Instead, the global community needs to commit to rapidly phasing out fossil fuels, scaling up renewable energy, and improving energy efficiency. People and nature must be at the heart of these actions—so that communities are supported through a just transition, ecosystems are restored and protected, and the benefits of a sustainable future are shared equitably by all.

The lackluster results, paired with the ongoing controversy of yet another petrostate hosting COP and touting fossil fuels as a “gift from God” at a time when the planet is facing another year of record temperatures, left many asking whether the entire process was working. Indeed, a letter featuring many leaders in the climate movement, was submitted to the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Secretariat and UN Secretary-General, calling for COP reform.

In all honesty, the mood as we look towards Brazil and COP30 is a mixture of disappointment and determination. Obviously, the parties to the Paris Agreement are not doing nearly enough to meet the challenge of the climate crisis, and the cost of our failures and equivocation are painfully obvious—lives lost and communities ravaged by worsening climate impacts. At the same time, we see that communities and activists and subnational entities are raising their voices and demanding that solutions must come faster and more money must be committed. Even in the face of the disappointment, what stood out to me is that the focus is on reform, not resignation.

The order of the day, to me, is another word that begins with “r”—we must be relentless. Relentless in seeking emissions reductions. Relentless in securing renewable, sustainable energy sources. Relentless in applying nature-based solutions to maximize the efficacy of the earth’s own carbon cycle. Relentless in protecting communities from the impacts of global warming. And relentless in ensuring equity—so that communities most vulnerable to climate impacts receive the most assistance and share in the economic growth that comes from the renewable energy transition.

As we go forward in 2025, may we all be RELENTLESS in addressing the climate crisis.