What you need to know about tipping points

In April, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration made a grim announcement: the world’s coral reefs are in the throes of a global bleaching event. Bleaching—when corals become so stressed by rising ocean temperatures that they expel the symbiotic algae they need to survive—has already been confirmed in 54 countries, affecting more than half the world’s coral reefs, from Australia’s Great Barrier Reef to Florida and the Caribbean.

It is the fourth such occurrence in 30 years and will likely be the most extensive yet.

“Almost every year, you read another story about how the bleaching event is even worse than it was last year,” says Rebecca Shaw, chief scientist and senior vice-president of WWF’s Global Science division. “I think we are approaching the very cusp of a tipping point.”

What are tipping points?

Some environmental systems, such as coral reefs, are currently undergoing profound upheavals due to global warming, pollution, and the over-exploitation of natural resources. When sufficient changes accumulate over time, they can push the system beyond a critical threshold—called a ‘tipping point’—into a completely new state. This drastic transformation happens abruptly, and triggers cascading feedback loops that accelerate the process, often leading to irreversible changes in the system.

Why do tipping points matter?

Researchers have so far identified more than 20 tipping points, or systems that are close to the edge. If triggered, the changes will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems.

Apart from coral reef ecosystems collapsing, the most worrisome tipping points today include:

• The melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, already underway, which will cause global sea levels to rise by up to 23 feet in the coming centuries. Disappearing ice also means less sunlight is reflected back into space, further warming the atmosphere.
• The continued thawing of permafrost in Alaska, Greenland, and other Arctic regions could release gigatons of heat-trapping methane into the atmosphere, which in turn would cause more warming and further melting.
• The shut-down of ocean mixing in the North Atlantic could shift global climate patterns and bring about more extreme weather. If this system of ocean currents—which moves warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic—collapses, there will be rapid and drastic changes to the climate and sea levels.
• The die-back of the Amazon could turn the world’s largest rainforest into a dry, degraded savannah, resulting in rapid biodiversity decline and the loss of a major carbon sink.

When one tipping point is crossed, it could trigger others, causing a domino effect. The melt-off of glaciers and ice-sheets, for instance, would pour freshwater into the sea and further weaken ocean circulation.

What are positive tipping points?

It’s not all bad news, however. “For a long time in scientific literature, we talked about tipping points as being catastrophic and how we’re just victims to them,” says Shaw. “But there are social tipping points too, which can be really positive.”

These are industrial, technological, economic, and social developments that can bring about desirable changes that help slash emissions and restore nature. Examples include the electric vehicle revolution, an uptick in renewable energy use and green financing, and people cutting their meat consumption.

“The world is always going to change,” says Sam Cheng, director of conservation evidence of WWF’s Global Science team. “The question is whether or not we can try and trigger these positive tipping points in a way that brings us back to more of a natural state of change.”

How is WWF responding to tipping points?

Pulling back from the dangerous precipice of negative tipping points isn’t easy, Cheng admits. “These are complex problems that don’t always have a straight answer, and the sheer scale of some of these global challenges can be very overwhelming.”

“But I think there are lots of reasons for optimism,” says Cheng. “Now, more than ever, people are seeing the impacts of climate change and the impact of [negative] tipping points.” This heightened awareness is evidenced by climate marches and youth movements, as well as a general push for conservation climate policy at a global stage and greater financing for green solutions, she says.

To that end, WWF is working with international partners to raise public and private sector funding to support and protect large-scale conservation areas across the world. “We recognize that one of the biggest obstacles to conservation success is having available funding for people to do their job,” explains Cheng.

The organization is also working more closely with civil society organizations and local community groups, thinking more about agricultural and aquaculture systems, she says. “Decades ago, these systems on the periphery of urban areas were not where conservation was focused on.”

Additionally, WWF’s Global Science team works with program teams and implementing partners worldwide to “think about how we design durable and sustainable solutions,” says Cheng. “So not just thinking about the types of conservation actions that may be implemented on the ground, whether that’s restoring habitat corridors for animal migration, but thinking about the enabling conditions for them.”

Throughout this work, one thing is always on the forefront of their minds: equity. “Really making sure how we step away from those negative tipping points is inclusive,” Cheng explains, “and that the consequences of doing so don’t end up with adverse effects for the people who are least able to pay those costs.”

What can you do to help?

It can sometimes seem like there’s a lot of climate doom going around, but the important thing to remember is that it isn’t too late to take action. “We can still pull back from tipping points. It hasn’t gone over the edge where it can’t be retrieved,” says Shaw. “It’s a bit like being unhealthy—when you start taking care of yourself again, you can get healthy and thrive. That’s the case with the Earth and to avoid tipping points.”

Encouragingly, we already have the tools to do so, she says. But we have to “move quickly to put into motion the changes that will bear fruit in the next 15, 25, and 35 years.”

As individuals, we can help things along by taking small steps to make a difference. For instance, being more mindful about consuming food that is sustainably sourced and wasting less of it. Or by switching to renewable energy, be it installing solar panels or purchasing an electric vehicle.

“Positive tipping points give us a lot of opportunity to exercise our own agency to create the world we want,” says Shaw. “The next five years is going to be a really exciting time as we delve into the idea of creating social tipping points to avert the dual climate and nature crisis.”