Peer-reviewed publications

The rapid expansion of freely available Earth observation data, combined with advancements in forest monitoring capabilities, has led to the production of a variety of datasets on forest cover and change at the national and global scales. These datasets are essential for informing science and policy. Yet, this surge in available data products comes with the challenge of reconciling differences in the mapping of forest, non-forest, and forest loss across products. Differences in forest cover mapping between products result in divergent estimates of forest area change, potentially constraining the utility of these products to inform science and policy, consistently, across scales. We use the case of Colombia to demonstrate that these inconsistencies can be largely resolved by advancing operational forest monitoring capabilities toward the representation of forest cover and change as continuous rather than discrete variables. The analysis consisted of a comparison between the global forest change product (GFC) and the official national datasets on forest cover change for Colombia (IDEAM) in terms of overall and per-class classification agreement and estimates of forest-area loss. The comparison was performed after harmonizing the GFC dataset (HGFC) to maximize its overall classification agreement with the IDEAM map, based on the adoption of optimum percent tree cover thresholds, applied to GFC for subnational units. Based on these results, we evaluate whether classification agreement and disagreement between mapped forest and non-forest classes by HGFC and IDEAM can be explained by differences in continuous physical forest attributes, represented by forest Canopy Height (CH) and Above-Ground Biomass Density (AGBD). We produced the analysis for the entire country and also for mountainous and non-mountainous areas separately. We show that the optimal threshold in tree cover that maximizes map agreement, varies largely between subnational units, with values ranging between 20% and 100%. Results show a high overall agreement and also high agreement for stable forest and non-forest classes. Agreement between pixels classified as forest loss was much lower, regardless of the map used as reference. Classification agreement was lower for mountainous areas than for non-mountainous areas, particularly for forest loss and stable forest classes. Pixels representing classification disagreement were characterized by intermediate values of CH and AGBD that are significantly different from pixels classified as non-forest and forest for both maps, with significantly lower and higher CH and AGBD values, respectively. Differences were more notable in non-mountainous areas than in mountainous ones. We conclude that solving these large existing discrepancies in forest classification and forest loss estimates between datasets requires advancing operational capabilities toward the representation of forest cover and change as continuous rather than as categorical variables, with particular emphasis on mountainous areas. We illustrate how moving in such a direction can (1) promote consistency between forest cover definitions and map representation, (2) facilitate comparability among products and estimates of forest area loss at different scales of analysis, and (3) promote accountability in forest area loss assessments.

Threats to ocean health are not distributed equally among nations: low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are disproportionately impacted by conservation threats, which are frequently driven by high-income countries (HICs). These inequities and resultant challenges have been driven by a long history of colonialism and resource exploitation by HICs. There has been a growing recognition that these colonial practices and inequities have been perpetuated in the ocean science and conservation fields. This recognition has led to increased discourse about the need for social equity in ocean science and conservation. We explore the potential of small grants programs to address conservation challenges in a manner that promotes management equity (one component of social equity) by reviewing the characteristics and outcomes of projects funded in the first 21 years (1999–2020) of the Marine Conservation Action Fund (MCAF), a small grants program focused on global ocean conservation. Our review of MCAF provides evidence that small grants advance global ocean conservation and management equity. We highlight characteristics of grants programs that enable lasting conservation impacts: openness to risk and responsiveness to emerging conservation needs. To promote management equity in conservation science and practice, we recommend ensuring funding is accessible to project leaders and local organizations in LMICs, providing flexibility in proposal and reporting structures, supporting the design and implementation of projects that are driven by local priorities, providing support to projects that engage stakeholders in developing solutions, and seeking input from the leaders the program serves.

Information on long-range dispersal in tropical carnivores is limited compared to their temperate counterparts. Here we present data on long-range, transboundary dispersals for three species of tropical carnivores: African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), African lion (Panthera leo), and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta). The dispersals we document in our savannah system are among the longest that have been recorded for African wild dog and African lion, while for spotted hyena one of our recorded dispersal events is of similar magnitude to the longest documented movements occurring among any carnivore species from around the world.

Introduction: Efforts are underway to transform food systems in light of their contributions to global challenges like climate change. However, food systems are highly complex, involve noteworthy place-based challenges, and there is often debate and disagreement among experts over appropriate technologies or interventions to prioritize. Tracking progress, and understanding these differences, is thus a critical need. Methods: We surveyed food systems experts in eight countries about their preferences for 20 different food system transformation strategies and their sentiment regarding whether current initiatives are sufficient to meet 2030 goals for climate and biodiversity. Results: Expert sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, and experts are concerned about multiple “transformation gaps,” including gaps in ambition, strategy, and implementation. Expert rankings for 20 strategies vary notably among countries and in ways that do not match those same experts’ rankings for the strength of the science behind each lever. Factor analysis reveals four distinct theories of change informing experts’ subjective biases: transformation via technical optimization, via smallholder support, via nature-positive solutions, and via supply chain enabling conditions. Discussion: These findings provide insights for navigating the complexities of food system transformation and illustrate the influence on our strategies of preconceptions and biases in how we have come to understand the nature of the challenge.

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Theory on access suggests there is a beneficial relationship between access to resources and well-being outcomes. Yet, the intricacies of the relationship between access and well-being have received limited empirical attention - especially in the context of fisheries. To examine this topic, we use a quantitative survey of 444 small-scale fishers in 8 countries in the Mediterranean Sea. We created composite scores from indicators related to fishers' perceptions of availability of resources, access capacities (financial, social, political, physical, human and cultural assets), access rights (formal rights and competing uses) and well-being. We then use descriptive analysis to characterize access and well-being among fishers and modeling approaches to examine how demographic factors are related to access rights and capacities and which factors are predictive of well-being. The research provides several insights. First, SSF had more positive perceptions of their access capacities and access rights than of resource availability. Second, SSF perceptions of resource availability, access rights and capacities varied significantly among sites and countries, but less so for demographic variables. Third, SSFs had a fairly positive perception of their overall well-being, however perceptions were less positive in some countries and for some indicators of well-being. Fourth, while some access capacities (i.e., social, cultural, political and financial assets) were positive predictors of an overall measure of 'human well-being', formal access rights were not a predictor of human well-being. These results highlight that managing SSF for well-being requires a nuanced understanding of and targeted approach to addressing access rights and capacities.

Other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) represent a new frontier in conservation, aiming to acknowledge efforts that contribute to biodiversity beyond marine protected areas (MPAs). Many nations, including Indonesia, are establishing country-specific criteria to define what qualifies as an OECM. However, demonstrating the biodiversity contributions of Indonesia's 382 identified potential OECMs (i.e., non-MPA areas, governed and managed, and likely contributing to biodiversity conservation) poses a challenge due to the absence of national monitoring systems outside MPAs. A spatial approach was used to provide an overview of the expected ecological contributions of potential OECMs upon formal recognition. Potential OECMs were, on average, five times smaller (26,838 ha) than MPAs (133,524 ha). Together with MPAs, they formed a denser conservation network, with many encompassing climate refugia reefs. Upon full recognition, potential OECMs could contribute to conserving <1%, 12%, and 8% of the nation's mangroves, seagrass, and coral reef areas, respectively. Potential OECMs were restricted to coastal areas, and situated in various ecological contexts, including areas typically excluded from MPA designation, such as turbid reefs. Recognizing these OECMs could potentially add 10 million ha to national marine conservation areas. Collectively, MPAs and potential OECMs could contribute to conserving 13% of the nation's waters by 2030. Potential OECMs are effective locally and offer unique strengths, including diverse governance approaches, long-term presence, and potential socioeconomic benefits. Nonetheless, they face challenges from human pressures that may compromise their effectiveness. Formal recognition and strengthening of these areas could help mitigate these risks. This study highlights the potential of recognizing OECMs to enhance conservation efforts in Indonesia, complementing the existing MPA network.

Restoring Forests and Trees for Sustainable Development utilizes a multidisciplinary perspective to analyze and discuss the various opportunities and challenges of restoring tree and forest cover. It examines forest restoration commitments, policies and programs, their implementation at different scales and contexts, and how forest restoration helps to mitigate environmental, societal, and cultural challenges. This book explores how restoration affects forest ecosystem services, contributes to biodiversity conservation, and generates benefits and synergies, while recognizing the considerable costs, tradeoffs, and variable feasibility of its implementation.

Existing approaches to evaluating companies on sustainability-related issues include limited accounting of impacts on nature and its contributions to human well-being. Here we present an approach for quantifying the direct impacts of companies’ physical assets on nature based on global maps for eight ecosystem service and biodiversity metrics. We apply this approach to a set of over 2000 global, publicly traded companies with 580,000 mapped physical assets and find that companies in utility, real estate, materials, and financial sectors have the largest impacts on average, with substantial variation within all sectors. Using high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery to map individual mine footprints, we compare a set of active lithium mines and find that impacts vary substantially among mines and change over time. By using open-source models and drawing on the growing availability of high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery, this approach could provide more transparent measures of corporate impacts to nature for nature-related reporting.

Blue and green food systems share key resources—water, nutrients, and sediment—that move between land, freshwater, and oceans. However, these systems are generally managed separately, potentially negatively impacting food production and the environment. Managing blue and green foods as integrated systems is central to feeding the world healthy and sustainable food.