Peer-reviewed publications

Values play a significant role in decision-making, especially regarding nature. Decisions impact people and nature in complex ways and understanding which values are prioritised, and which are left out is an important task for improving the equity and effectiveness of decision-making. Based on work done for the IPBES Values Assessment, this paper develops a framework to support analyses of how decision-making influences nature as well as whose values get prioritised. The framework is used to analyse key areas of environmental policy: a) the present model for nature protection in market economies, b) the role of valuation in bringing nature values into decisions, and c) values embedded in environmental policy instruments, exemplified by protected areas for nature conservation and payments for ecosystem services. The analyses show that environmental policies have been established as mere additions to decision-making structures that foster economic expansion, which undermines a wide range of nature's values. Moreover, environmental policies themselves are also focused on a limited set of nature's diverse values. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Bringing nature into decision-making’.

Deforestation impacts the ecosystem services provided by downstream coral reefs to coastal communities in multiple ways, such as through increased sedimentation and nutrification. However, connections between terrestrial and marine ecosystems are generally assessed at a single scale and from an ecological perspective alone, limiting our understanding of how watershed management affects the benefits accrued by coastal communities at different scales. Here we explore how ecological and societal benefits of watershed interventions (restoration, protection and sustainable agriculture) differ when considered regionally versus nationally in the Mesoamerican Reef region, by using linked land–sea ecosystem service models. Results from a regional approach prioritize implementing interventions in larger multinational watersheds, leading to neighbouring nations benefiting from increased sediment retention and healthy corals. For the national prioritization approach, selecting for smaller watersheds within individual countries resulted in more societal benefits, particularly increased coastal protection and nature-based tourism, at the cost of improved coral health for neighbouring nations. We demonstrate how planning at multiple scales across the region can improve ecosystem and societal benefits, resulting in win–win outcomes.

Achieving global climate, development, and biodiversity goals will require bringing conservation interventions to scale in suitable contexts and with appropriate timing. Practitioners and policymakers have a range of actions available to influence where, when, and by whom an initiative is adopted. Yet, to make effective management decisions, they must have a clear view of the current trajectory towards scaling goals. The non-linearity and variability of scaling processes has, however, hindered forecasting of adoption trends and environmental outcomes. Here, we adapt models of disease transmission to present a simple and flexible modeling structure for forecasting the adoption of conservation initiatives. We tested this framework on empirical adoption data from 19 distinct initiatives. Specifically, we fit the shape of the adoption timeline during the first half of each initiative, estimating the rates of independent uptake and social transmission up to that point. Forecasting the latter 50% of the timeline of cumulative adoption using just these two parameters resulted in an out-of-sample average error of 15.9% across all observations, indicating that this simple formulation captures much of the data-generating process. In one case, we included data on conservation abandonment, extending the cumulative adoption model to estimate the dropout rate and predicting net adoption with an average error of 19.6%, also indicative that this model captures the empirical process reasonably well. We caution against using such models for long-term forecasts, as they are sensitive to multiple assumptions, but instead advocate for their use in adaptive management. Iterative comparisons of forecasts allow users to retrospectively evaluate the impact of decisions and investments. When combined with estimates of environmental outcomes, our framework may provide a comprehensive modeling strategy for identifying targeted management actions and forecasting the impact of conservation projects while considering dynamic social processes.

The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution in 2022 that formally recognizes that there is a universal human right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment. Yet there is evidence that human rights impacts associated with the degradation of the ocean environment are accelerating. In this perspective, we highlight how the recognition of the human right to a healthy environment can catalyze ocean action and transform ocean governance. In particular, it can do so through 1) catalyzing marine protection and increasing accountability through clarifying state obligations, 2) improving the inclusiveness of ocean governance, including through prioritizing and empowering groups in situations of vulnerability, and 3) enhancing ocean economy practices through clarifying private sector responsibilities. To those ends, there is an urgent need to move from recognition to implementation in order to protect both current and future generations’ right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable ocean.

Countries are expanding marine protected area (MPA) networks to mitigate fisheries declines and support marine biodiversity. However, MPA impact evaluations typically assess total fish biomass. Here, we examine how fish biomass disaggregated by adult and juvenile life stages responds to environmental drivers, including sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and human footprint, and multiple management types at 139 reef sites in the Mesoamerican Reef (MAR) region. We found that total fish biomass generally appears stable across the region from 2006 to 2018, with limited rebuilding of fish stocks in MPAs. However, the metric of total fish biomass masked changes in fish community structure, with lower adult than juvenile fish biomass at northern sites, and adult:juvenile ratios closer to 1:1 at southern sites. These shifts were associated with different responses of juvenile and adult fish to environmental drivers and management. Juvenile fish biomass increased at sites with high larval connectivity and coral cover, whereas adult fish biomass decreased at sites with greater human footprint and SST anomalies. Adult fish biomass decreased primarily in Honduran general use zones, which suggests insufficient protection for adult fish in the southern MAR. There was a north–south gradient in management and environmental drivers, with lower coverage of fully protected areas and higher SST anomalies and coastal development in the south that together may undermine the maintenance of adult fish biomass in the southern MAR. Accounting for the interplay between environmental drivers and management in the design of MPAs is critical for increasing fish biomass across life history stages.

Global food loss and waste has not abated despite tremendous efforts to reduce it. Food wastage has profound consequences including our inability to combat hunger, contributions to unsustainable resource exploitation, and represents about half of the greenhouse gas emissions of the entire agrifood system. Mitigating the problems for a sustainable future requires managing food waste using the most appropriate approach. Upcycling food waste to animal feed is an essential strategy to capture the greatest value compared with other recycling options. The overall goal of this critical analysis is to provide evidence that upcycling of many food waste sources to animal feed can be successfully achieved in support of sustainable productivity. We describe multiple dimensions of reducing emissions and improving resource utilization efficiency, characterize the suitability of various food waste sources and limitations as animal feed, and describe the needs for de-risking strategies, overcoming legislative bottlenecks, and filling knowledge gaps to accelerate greater use of this high impact sustainability strategy.

Wildlife must adapt to human presence to survive in the Anthropocene, so it is critical to understand species responses to humans in different contexts. We used camera trapping as a lens to view mammal responses to changes in human activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Across 163 species sampled in 102 projects around the world, changes in the amount and timing of animal activity varied widely. Under higher human activity, mammals were less active in undeveloped areas but unexpectedly more active in developed areas while exhibiting greater nocturnality. Carnivores were most sensitive, showing the strongest decreases in activity and greatest increases in nocturnality. Wildlife managers must consider how habituation and uneven sensitivity across species may cause fundamental differences in human–wildlife interactions along gradients of human influence.

The commitment to protect 30% of the Earth by 2030 will create an unprecedented expansion of area-based conservation through both protected and conserved areas. Yet, there is still significant uncertainty about how to achieve this goal, including how to integrate conserved areas into the area-based conservation paradigm. To maximize the benefits to biodiversity, it is essential that we have tools to track how protected and conserved areas are implemented over time. Here, we present a conceptual framework for describing and monitoring changes to protected and conserved areas, demonstrating its use by documenting examples of changes to formally recognized conserved areas and hundreds of examples of protected areas being converted to conserved areas (42% of all conserved areas). We reveal how changes to protected and conserved Areas may interact to affect area-based conservation and provide a system for classifying and monitoring such changes. This transparency and accountability in monitoring and reporting on area-based conservation will be essential to inform our understanding of global conservation progress.

Planning of marine areas has spread widely over the past two decades to support sustainable ocean management and governance. However, to succeed in a changing ocean, marine spatial planning (MSP) must be ‘climate-smart’— integrating climate-related knowledge, being flexible to changing conditions, and supporting climate actions. While the need for climate-smart MSP has been globally recognized, at a practical level, marine managers and planners require further guidance on how to put it into action. Here, we suggest ten key components that, if well-integrated, would promote the development and implementation of sustainable, equitable, climate-smart MSP initiatives around the globe.

Fuelwood, a forest resource, is used to satisfy local energy demands in many parts of the world. However, wood harvesting for subsistence or livelihood dependence is challenged by conservation narratives of forest degradation and loss in many parts of the Global South. Despite a vast network of protected areas that regulate access to resource extraction, forest dependence continues. Simultaneously, wood fuel continues to be used as a renewable source of energy in many developed countries. Energy transitions and the adoption of cleaner or low-carbon fuels are deeply socio-political and embedded in gender and social inequalities. Fuelwood dependence and adoption of alternate low-carbon technologies impact gender and social equity in intersectional ways. This study investigates the drivers of forest dependence on fuelwood and how that relates to broader narratives of forest degradation and conservation in Bhitarkanika National Park, a protected mangrove forest along the east coast of India. It utilizes the theory of access with surveys and focus groups to inquire about the socio-cultural beliefs and influences that shape reliance on firewood. Additionally, it also examines how access contributes to constraining or intensifying forest dependency, and how this dynamic interacts with intersectionality to uphold prevailing social conditions. The findings reveal a gendered differentiation in labor and values toward fuelwood collection and use. Women were found to be reluctant to change traditional ways of cooking and heating because of social responsibilities, structures, and preferences whereas men supported alternatives to fuelwood use, implying an invisible burden of conservation on women. Although forest dependence was largely for fuelwood, these dependencies stemmed from both social and cultural preferences, affirming the requirement for integrating cultural preferences and values that shape communities reliant on mangrove forests, to effectively devise practical conservation solutions involving alternative technologies or subsidized fuel options.