Peer-reviewed publications

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely used for ocean conservation, yet the relative impacts of various types of MPAs are poorly understood. We estimated impacts on fish biomass from no-take and multiple-use (fished) MPAs, employing a rigorous matched counterfactual design with a global dataset of >14,000 surveys in and around 216 MPAs. Both no-take and multiple-use MPAs generated positive conservation outcomes relative to no protection (58.2% and 12.6% fish biomass increases, respectively), with smaller estimated differences between the two MPA types when controlling for additional confounding factors (8.3% increase). Relative performance depended on context and management: no-take MPAs performed better in areas of high human pressure but similar to multiple-use in remote locations. Multiple-use MPA performance was low in high-pressure areas but improved significantly with better management, producing similar outcomes to no-take MPAs when adequately staffed and appropriate use regulations were applied. For priority conservation areas where no-take restrictions are not possible or ethical, our findings show that a portfolio of well-designed and well-managed multiple-use MPAs represents a viable and potentially equitable pathway to advance local and global conservation.

Forestation is widely proposed for carbon dioxide (CO2) removal, but its impact on climate through changes to atmospheric composition and surface albedo remains relatively unexplored. We assessed these responses using two Earth system models by comparing a scenario with extensive global forest expansion in suitable regions to other plausible futures. We found that forestation increased aerosol scattering and the greenhouse gases methane and ozone following increased biogenic organic emissions. Additionally, forestation decreased surface albedo, which yielded a positive radiative forcing (i.e., warming). This offset up to a third of the negative forcing from the additional CO2 removal under a 4°C warming scenario. However, when forestation was pursued alongside other strategies that achieve the 2°C Paris Agreement target, the offsetting positive forcing was smaller, highlighting the urgency for simultaneous emission reductions.

Voluntary land conservation, including privately protected areas (PPAs), is a key component of enabling the future of biodiversity on Earth. Accordingly, the question of motivations has preoccupied conservation social science. True motivations are difficult to ascertain, however, even for ourselves.Accordingly, we explore a novel narrative elicitation approach to ask: what features of the land and landowners' relationships with the land encourage and sustain their commitment to voluntary conservation? What value framings are conveyed by landowners when sharing their origin stories and the reasons for sustaining such efforts?We conducted semi-structured interviews with 32 landowners of PPAs across Peru. Interviews were designed to elicit landowners' origin stories and ongoing relationships with the land, as well as the values they hold about those relationships.This paper challenges the current perception that PPAs are driven by wealthy and foreign landowners in the Peruvian context. Instead, this paper showcases PPAs as the manifestation of local visions for conservation that align with the landowners' longstanding relationships with the land. Here we identified 15 different relational values that landowners have with nature, non-human and human beings that underlie their voluntary conservation efforts.The paper highlights the importance of taking a relational perspective (recognizing that our existence is enabled and shaped by the relationships we have with others and with nature) when studying land conservation, emphasizing how PPAs are the reflection of landowners' intention to maintain, protect and restore the multiple relationships embedded in the land they strive to conserve.

Climate change is expected to shift the distributions of global biomes. High latitude biomes, such as the boreal forest, are among the most vulnerable and serve as a bellwether for the effects of climate change on other ecosystems. We examined patterns of occupancy, local extinction, and abundance in a guild of forest-associated vertebrate prey species on the southern margin of the boreal forest in Minnesota (USA). We used multi-season, multi-state, and multi-species occupancy modeling approaches to determine the effects of land cover, forest structural characteristics, and climatic variation on two boreal-associated species, spruce grouse (Canachites canadensis) and snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus), and a forest generalist, ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus). Occupancy, abundance, and extinction of spruce grouse was strongly associated with landscape-scale characteristics. In particular, deciduous forest cover may govern their southern range limit. Broadly, forest understory structure played a significant role in occupancy, extinction, and abundance patterns of all three species, with ruffed and spruce grouse generally associated with vegetation density in the lower and mid-canopy layer (5.00–15.00 m) and snowshoe hare associated with density in the shrub layer (1.37–5.00 m) in winter. Co-occurrence varied annually but was greatest in mixed forests during an uncharacteristically warm and snow-sparse year. Climatic variables (winter temperature and snowfall) were associated with extinction probabilities for all three species, but the effect was generally weaker than that of forest structure. Our results suggest that forest management practices that promote dense understory structure may help provide climate refugia for vertebrate prey species in boreal forest ecosystems.

Global ecosystems are interconnected via atmospheric water vapor flows. Land use change can modify evaporation from land, altering atmospheric moisture recycling and potentially leading to significant changes in downwind precipitation and associated ecological impacts. We combine insights on global ecosystem-regulated moisture recycling with an analysis of critical natural assets (CNA, the 30% of global land providing most of nature's contributions to people) to reveal the sources and sinks of atmospheric water cycle regulation. We find that 65% of the precipitation over CNA is supplied by evaporation from other land areas. Likewise, CNA regions supply critical moisture as precipitation to terrestrial natural ecosystems and production systems worldwide, with 44% of CNA evaporation falling on terrestrial surfaces. Specifically, the Congo River basin emerges as a hotspot of overlap between local atmospheric water cycle maintenance and concentration of nature's contributions to people. Our results suggest global priority areas for conservation efforts beyond and in support of CNA, emphasizing the importance of sparsely populated managed forests and rangelands, along with wild forests, for fostering moisture recycling to and within CNA. This work also underlines the manifold benefits associated with achieving United Nations Sustainable Development Goal #15, to sustainably manage terrestrial life and conserve biodiversity.

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature’s contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature’s contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature’s contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

It has been 5 y since we published the EAT-Lancet Commission on Healthy Diets from Sustainable Food Systems. Since then, the study has been widely discussed, debated, and even disparaged and has become one of the most cited reports on human health and environmental sustainability. It has had enormous influence on the global debate on food system transformation; however, since 2019 and despite its influence, progress on achieving healthy diets from sustainable food systems has stalled and, in some cases, gone backward. A large part of this lack of progress can be attributed to a global pandemic and the devasting war in Ukraine, but part of the lack of progress must also be attributed to our continued hesitancy to openly discuss and address the impacts that diets have on human health and the environment.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has taken millions of lives and has had a significant impact on societal norms. It has also affected nature and wildlife in numerous ways. Protected and Conserved Areas (PCAs), key interventions to safeguard nature, have only recently started to be discussed in the context of the pandemic even though natural spaces provide substantial ecological, social and economic value. PCAs are also important for reducing the risk of future pandemics as they can reduce land-use change—the main driver of emerging zoonotic diseases. This chapter aims to highlight the ecological, social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on PCAs and lessons learned for PCA management to strengthen their ecological and societal values. The ecological impacts of the pandemic on PCAs included increased illegal logging and poaching, and increased risks to species such as bats and apes. The social impacts included reduced ranger welfare from overworking and staff cuts, and increased risks for local communities and Indigenous peoples who rely on PCAs. Lastly, the economic impacts included reduced funding for PCAs, which threatens livelihoods and increases conservation threats. Based on these impacts, key recommendations include strengthening regulations and protection measures, increasing benefit sharing and increasing diverse sources of funding, particularly in more affected regions, such as Latin America and Africa. Additionally, the IUCN Green List and a One Health approach can be used for improved PCA management and recovery.

In late December 1973, the United States enacted what some would come to call “the pitbull of environmental laws.” In the 50 years since, the formidable regulatory teeth of the Endangered Species Act (ESA) have been credited with considerable successes, obliging agencies to draw upon the best available science to protect species and habitats. Yet human pressures continue to push the planet toward extinctions on a massive scale. With that prospect looming, and with scientific understanding ever changing, Science invited experts to discuss how the ESA has evolved and what its future might hold.

This Analysis presents a recently developed food system indicator framework and holistic monitoring architecture to track food system transformation towards global development, health and sustainability goals. Five themes are considered: (1) diets, nutrition and health; (2) environment, natural resources and production; (3) livelihoods, poverty and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience. Each theme is divided into three to five indicator domains, and indicators were selected to reflect each domain through a consultative process. In total, 50 indicators were selected, with at least one indicator available for every domain. Harmonized data of these 50 indicators provide a baseline assessment of the world’s food systems. We show that every country can claim positive outcomes in some parts of food systems, but none are among the highest ranked across all domains. Furthermore, some indicators are independent of national income, and each highlights a specific aspiration for healthy, sustainable and just food systems. The Food Systems Countdown Initiative will track food systems annually to 2030, amending the framework as new indicators or better data emerge.