Peer-reviewed publications

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people, and quality of life.

Wildlife species may shift towards more nocturnal behavior in areas of higher human influence, but it is unclear how consistent this shift might be. We investigated how humans impact large mammal diel activities in a heavily recreated protected area and an adjacent university-managed forest in southwest British Columbia, Canada. We used camera trap detections of humans and wildlife, along with data on land-use infrastructure (e.g., recreation trails and restricted-access roads), in Bayesian regression models to investigate impacts of human disturbance on wildlife nocturnality. We found moderate evidence that black bears (Ursus americanus) were more nocturnal in response to human detections (mean posterior estimate = 0.35, 90% credible interval = 0.04 to 0.65), but no other clear relationships between wildlife nocturnality and human detections. However, we found evidence that coyotes (Canis latrans) (estimates = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.17) were more nocturnal and snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) (estimate = -0.87, 95% CI = -1.29 to -0.46) were less nocturnal in areas of higher trail density. We also found that coyotes (estimate = -0.87, 95% CI = -1.29 to -0.46) and cougars (Puma concolor) (estimate = -1.14, 90% CI = -2.16 to -0.12) were less nocturnal in areas of greater road density. Furthermore, coyotes, black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus), and snowshoe hares were moderately more nocturnal in areas near urban-wildland boundaries (estimates and 90% CIs: coyote = -0.29, -0.55 to -0.04, black-tailed deer = -0.25, -0.45 to -0.04, snowshoe hare = -0.24, -0.46 to -0.01). Our findings imply anthropogenic landscape features may influence medium to large-sized mammal diel activities more than direct human presence. While increased nocturnality may be a promising mechanism for human-wildlife coexistence, shifts in temporal activity can also have negative repercussions for wildlife, warranting further research into the causes and consequences of wildlife responses to increasingly human-dominated landscapes.

The 2022 United Nations (UN) Biodiversity Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) recognized for the first-time ‘inland waters’ as a distinct realm in terms of setting targets and a process for monitoring and conserving them and their biodiversity. It is common for environmentalists and environmental scholars to bemoan things that they care about, but that have been forgotten, ignored, or excluded when it comes to environmental decisions, or the development of environmental policy. Often those concerns focus on a specific taxonomic group or species, a specific locality, a particular environmental decision, or a particular regional or national policy. However, rarely do they focus on an entire realm that occurs around the globe. By ‘realm’ we are referring to terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. Equally important, some of the key messages of the Kunming-Montreal GBF were picked up at the UN Water Conference in March 2023, the first of such meetings in almost 50 years, which commits to a global water action agenda to restore and protect freshwater ecosystems as a component of sustainable development. Here, we draw attention to the CBD included language that recognizes inland waters on their own merits (i.e., as a distinct realm) within the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) [1] that was submitted by the President of CBD COP 15, held in Montreal, on December 18, 2022.

As humanity has become increasingly urban, a growing number of people have been deprived of access to nature and the benefits it provides. This is especially true for marginalized groups, who often live in neighbourhoods where nature has been so diminished and degraded that it provides fewer types, and much lower levels of benefits.We review the literatures on human–nature relationships, urban sustainability and justice to create an actionable definition of ‘access to nature’ that people can use to advocate for and guide investments that improve access to nature in urban contexts.We show how the interplay of three dimensions of justice—recognitional, procedural and distributional—determines access to nature in cities, and how these dimensions are core to increasing access to urban nature.We present a design thinking framework that centres justice in creating interventions for access to nature, together with questions that can guide the process of designing and implementing new interventions.Lastly, we illustrate how our framework can be operationalized by showcasing three case studies that improve access to nature to marginalized communities in the United States: Latino Outdoors, Sogorea Te′ Land Trust and the Nature Imagery in Prisons Project.We conclude by re-affirming the importance of centring justice in improving access to nature, so that all people can enjoy the benefits that nature provides and lead healthy, fulfilling lives.

Reliable and comparable estimates of biodiversity are the foundation for understanding ecological systems and informing policy and decision-making, especially in an era of massive anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding is at the forefront of technological advances in biodiversity monitoring, and the last few years have seen major progress and solutions to technical challenges from the laboratory to bioinformatics. Water eDNA has been shown to allow the fast and efficient recovery of biodiversity signals, but the rapid pace of technological development has meant that some important principles regarding sampling design, which are well established in traditional biodiversity inventories, have been neglected. Using a spatially explicit river flow model, we illustrate how sampling must be adjusted to the size of the watercourse to increase the quality of the biodiversity signal recovered. We additionally investigate the effect of sampling parameters (volume, number of sites, sequencing depth) on detection probability in an empirical data set. Based on traditional sampling principles, we propose that aquatic eDNA sampling replication and volume must be scaled to match the organisms' and ecosystems' properties to provide reliable biodiversity estimates. We present a generalizable conceptual equation describing sampling features as a function of the size of the ecosystem monitored, the abundance of target organisms, and the properties of the sequencing procedure. The aim of this formalization is to enhance the standardization of critical steps in the design of biodiversity inventory studies using eDNA. More robust sampling standards will generate more comparable biodiversity data from eDNA, which is necessary for the method's long-term plausibility and comparability.

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is an approach to ocean management with an increasingly global reach. However, existing evaluation strategies have yet to ascertain the extent to which MSP achieves social, ecological, and economic goals to benefit coastal environments and human communities. Here, we experiment with a theory-based approach as a means of overcoming long-standing obstacles to MSP evaluation. We developed and applied an eight-step evaluation protocol to five diverse cases of MSP, focusing on the evaluative feasibility of the protocol as we moved from identifying objectives to assessing the sustainability of outcomes. We found evidence that theory-based evaluation (operationalized via theories of change) can bridge quantitative outcome and qualitative process evaluations, two essential approaches that on their own produce incomplete pictures of MSP. Our work suggests that a theory-based approach can enhance opportunities to incorporate diverse knowledge sources and data types into outcome evaluations and thus better capture complex social, political, and historical dimensions that are difficult to quantify but critical to MSP success. We also uncovered likely challenges to implementing theory-based evaluation for MSP, including the apparent data- and time-intensive nature of the approach. We found that applying theory-based evaluation is difficult for plans lacking well-defined goals, objectives, and intended outcomes and that increased documentation of planning motivations and the planning process are needed to rigorously evaluate MSP. Ultimately, we join others in the marine conservation and management fields who are optimistic about theory-based evaluation. Our evaluation protocol provides a first step towards a practical guide to accelerate the use of this assessment approach.

Well-resourced marine protected areas (MPA) are better managed, leading to improved ecological outcomes. Tourism is often cited as an important source of financial support for MPA management, yet it is unclear whether funding from visitor entry fees improves the effectiveness of the world's MPAs. Here we ask whether fees to enter MPAs associate with enhanced fish biomass, a key ecological goal of many MPAs, and whether relations exist among entry fees and management effectiveness. In an analysis of 86 MPAs, we found entry fees were associated with greater fish biomass when compared to parks without entry fees, but only for parks with lower scores for management effectiveness. A global assessment of management survey responses from 214 MPAs suggested the hypothesis that MPA entry fees benefit budget security and staff capacity to carry out critical management activities. Together, the results suggest a mechanism whereby entry fees support greater capacity to educate parks users on rules and enforce those rules. Future work should look at the details of MPA budgets to unravel the relationship between funding, management activities and ecological outcomes. Dependency on tourism also comes with the important implication that declines in tourism caused by socio-economic shocks and geopolitical events may have affected the financial security and therefore possibly the ecological effectiveness of MPAs.

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time, and the evidence base on observed impacts to date, and projected impacts, is growing. The impacts to island ecosystems and low-lying nations is particularly severe, including sea level rise, heavy precipitation events, and ocean warming, resulting in destruction of property, declining fish yields, and coral bleaching, among many other impacts. Decision support tools and other climate services are increasingly being used, but many gaps remain, and financing and implementation fall far short of what is needed. This chapter explores initiatives implemented by World Wildlife Fund to better understand how climate change is impacting people and wildlife, and how the research informs on-the-ground interventions which help people and wildlife adapt to a changing climate.

Forest regeneration can be a low-cost solution to mitigate climate change, and mapping its extent can support global goals such as the Bonn Challenge, which set a goal to put 350 million hectares of degraded forests and landscapes into restoration by 2030. Our study combined multiple remote sensing datasets and expert surveys, identifying 55.7+/- 6.2 million hectares of likely regenerated forests between 2000 and 2015 across areas that were not forested before 2000 and have remained forested from 2015 to 2018. The identified forest regeneration could potentially represent 22-25 billion young trees and a total biomass of about 3.2 billion tonnes. For every country, forest regeneration took place in sites with less opportunity cost for agriculture. However, in more developed regions, forest regeneration took place in sites with higher suitability for cultivation. Expert feedback associated agricultural land use transitions and the establishment of protected areas, coupled with effective management and local support, as the key factors leading to successful forest regeneration. The results, publicly available, can facilitate discussions and help identify strategic locations to foster forest regeneration to achieve the global goals of mitigating climate change and restoring biodiversity.

The effectiveness of commitments to zero-deforestation remains debated. An overlooked aspect is the mixture of private and public policies. We study its potential with the concept of hybrid governance applied to two case studies: mandatory FSC certification for forest concessionaires in Gabon and the National Strategy against Imported Deforestation in France. We find that hybrid governance provides flexibility to adapt to shifting sustainability concerns and can enable public and private features to mutually compensate for their respective weaknesses. Hybrid governance experiments may only be transitory to give way to stronger public policies as illustrated by Gabon. The France case shows that the integration of voluntary private standards in public policies remains sensitive. Overall, we show that hybrid governance should not resort to a mere accumulation of private and public components; a real dialogue between both spheres is required. Such a dialogue can take place before or after hybrid governance materialises as illustrated by the two case studies, which suggests that it should not be taken for granted but can be a positive outcome of the process. The ways through which economic and business aspects, as well as political ones, shape hybrid governance appear to be diverse and not straightforward.