Peer-reviewed publications

As human activities on the world’s oceans intensify, mapping human pressureis essential to develop appropriate conservation strategies and prioritize invest-ments with limited resources. Here, we map six human (nonclimatic) pressureson coral reefs using the latest quantitative data on fishing, water pollution (nitro-gen and sediments), coastal population, industrial development, and tourism.Using a percentile approach to rank different stressors, we identify the top-ranked local pressure and estimate a cumulative pressure index for 54,596 globalcoral reef pixels at 0.05◦(∼5 km) resolution. We find that coral reefs are exposedto multiple intense local pressures: fishing and water pollution (nutrients andsediments) are the most common top-ranked pressures worldwide (in 30.8% and32.3% of reef cells, respectively), although each pressure was ranked as a toppressure in some locations. We also find that local pressures are similar insideand outside a proposed global portfolio of coral reef climate refugia, suggestingthat even potential climate refugia have high levels of local human pressure thatrequire effective management. Our findings and datasets provide the best avail-able information that can ensure local pressures are effectively managed acrossthe world’s coral reefs.

Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses.

Few food waste interventions focus on drivers distinct to particular food groups, such as seafood. Given suggestive evidence that seafood may be wasted at exceptionally high rates, and given its environmental, economic and nutritional value, this research provides insights into seafood-specific consumer food waste interventions. We performed three complementary sub-studies to examine consumer and retailer views regarding seafood waste and frozen seafood as well as perceptions of an intervention providing chef-created recipes to promote cooking frozen seafood without defrosting. The findings indicated an openness to a direct-from-frozen intervention among many consumers and retailers, and suggested seven potential barriers to adoption, along with ways to address them. Underlying the potential for this intervention, and more broadly contributing to addressing consumer seafood waste, the research formed the basis of a new “4 Ps” concept model to characterize the drivers of discarded seafood: proficiency, perceptions/knowledge, perishability, and planning/convenience. These factors shape waste through pathways that include behavioral protocols; taste preferences; waste-prevention efforts; and food safety concerns, precautions, and errors. This research suggested the benefit of testing a larger-scale direct-from-frozen intervention using insights from the concept model and, more broadly, the benefits of exploring approaches to food waste prevention rooted in specific food groups.

With the Brazilian military governments of the 1960s, systematic economic development of the Amazon began. Social and environmental concerns have entered Amazonian discourses and policies only since the 1990s. Since then, reports of threats to forests and indigenous people have alternated with reports of socio-economic progress and environmental achievements. These contradictions often arise from limited thematic, sectoral, temporal, or spatial perspectives, and lead to misinterpretation. Our paper offers a comprehensive picture of discourses, policies, and socio-environmental dynamics for the entire region over the last five decades. We distinguish eight historical policy phases, each of which had little effect on near-linear dynamics of demographic growth and land-use expansion, although some policies showed the potential to change the course of development. To prevent local, national, and international actors from continuing to assert harmful interests in the region, a coherent long-term commitment and change in the collective mindset are needed.

Land-based climate mitigation measures have gained significant attention and importance in public and private sector climate policies. Building on previous studies, we refine and update the mitigation potentials for 20 land-based measures in >200 countries and five regions, comparing “bottom-up” sectoral estimates with integrated assessment models (IAMs). We also assess implementation feasibility at the country level. Cost-effective (available up to $100/tCO2eq) land-based mitigation is 8–13.8 GtCO2eq yr−1between 2020 and 2050, with the bottom end of this range representing the IAM median and the upper end representing the sectoral estimate. The cost-effective sectoral estimate is about 40% of available technical potential and is in line with achieving a 1.5°C pathway in 2050. Compared to technical potentials, cost-effective estimates represent a more realistic and actionable target for policy. The cost-effective potential is approximately 50% from forests and other ecosystems, 35% from agriculture, and 15% from demand-side measures. The potential varies sixfold across the five regions assessed (0.75–4.8 GtCO2eq yr−1) and the top 15 countries account for about 60% of the global potential. Protection of forests and other ecosystems and demand-side measures present particularly high mitigation efficiency, high provision of co-benefits, and relatively lower costs. The feasibility assessment suggests that governance, economic investment, and socio-cultural conditions influence the likelihood that land-based mitigation potentials are realized. A substantial portion of potential (80%) is in developing countries and LDCs, where feasibility barriers are of greatest concern. Assisting countries to overcome barriers may result in significant quantities of near-term, low-cost mitigation while locally achieving important climate adaptation and development benefits. Opportunities among countries vary widely depending on types of land-based measures available, their potential co-benefits and risks, and their feasibility. Enhanced investments and country-specific plans that accommodate this complexity are urgently needed to realize the large global potential from improved land stewardship.

The fragmentation of free-flowing rivers (FFRs) through major infrastructure development remains a pivotal threat to global freshwater biodiversity. More than 3400 large hydropower dams (>1 MW) are either planned or under construction, posing threats to freshwater megafauna (i.e., freshwater animals that can reach 30 kg). Here, we investigate the global patterns of river connectivity within distribution ranges of freshwater megafauna and explore how these patterns could change in the future. We found that the susceptibility of freshwater megafauna to reduced river connectivity in different dimensions depends on their life history. Freshwater megafauna taxa with a short accumulated length or low percentage of FFRs in their distribution ranges are more likely to be threatened. On average, there is higher freshwater megafauna richness in FFRs with proposed dams than in rivers that would remain free-flowing in the future or that are already fragmented. If all the proposed dams were built, 94 (18.9%) out of 497 remaining FFRs >500 km that provide habitat for freshwater megafauna would lose their free-flowing status. Our results highlight the reduced connectivity of rivers currently inhabited by freshwater megafauna and the future intensification of river fragmentation in megafauna-rich basins. Research and conservation efforts, including life-history studies, identification of critical habitats, updates of IUCN Red List assessments, advanced communication of the potential impacts on ecosystem services and livelihoods of affected communities, and strategic siting, design, and operations of proposed dams are urgently needed to safeguard freshwater megafauna and overall freshwater biodiversity.

Food systems that support healthy diets in sustainable, resilient, just, and equitable ways can engender progress in eradicating poverty and malnutrition; protecting human rights; and restoring natural resources. Food system activities have contributed to great gains for humanity but have also led to significant challenges, including hunger, poor diet quality, inequity, and threats to nature. While it is recognized that food systems are central to multiple global commitments and goals, including the Sustainable Development Goals, current trajectories are not aligned to meet these objectives. As mounting crises further stress food systems, the consequences of inaction are clear. The goal of food system transformation is to generate a future where all people have access to healthy diets, which are produced in sustainable and resilient ways that restore nature and deliver just, equitable livelihoods. A rigorous, science-based monitoring framework can support evidence-based policymaking and the work of those who hold key actors accountable in this transformation process. Monitoring can illustrate current performance, facilitate comparisons across geographies and over time, and track progress. We propose a framework centered around five thematic areas related to (1) diets, nutrition, and health; (2) environment and climate; and (3) livelihoods, poverty, and equity; (4) governance; and (5) resilience and sustainability. We hope to call attention to the need to monitor food systems globally to inform decisions and support accountability for better governance of food systems as part of the transformation process. Transformation is possible in the next decade, but rigorous evidence is needed in the countdown to the 2030 SDG global goals.

Despite increasing recognition of the need for more diverse and equitable representation in the sciences, it is unclear whether measurable progress has been made. Here, we examine trends in authorship in coral reef science from 1,677 articles published over the past 16 years (2003-2018) and find that while representation of authors that are women (from 18% to 33%) and from non-OECD nations (from 4% to 13%) have increased over time, progress is slow in achieving more equitable representation. For example, it would take over two decades at the current rate, for female representation to reach 50%, and even slower for non-OECD countries considering change is happening at a slower pace, and equitable representation would likely be higher given there are more coral reef non-OECD countries. . OECD nations also continue to dominate authorship contributions in coral reef science (89%), in research conducted in both OECD (63%) and non-OECD nations (68%). We identify systemic issues that remain prevalent in coral reef science (i.e. parachute science, gender bias) that likely contribute to observed trends. We provide recommendations to address systemic biases in research to foster a more inclusive global science community. Adoption of these recommendations will lead to more creative, innovative, and impactful scientific approaches urgently needed for coral reefs and contribute to environmental justice efforts.

An extensive set of policies, programmes, technologies and strategies have been implemented in the forest sector. Collectively, these ‘levers’ cover a diverse range of approaches, at a variety of scales and are governed by many different stakeholders. It is important for decision-makers to understand which levers might be most useful in achieving poverty alleviation. This paper seeks to answer the question: which forest management policies, programmes, technologies and strategies have been effective at alleviating poverty? We studied 21 different rights-based, regulatory, market and supply chain, and forest and tree management levers for which we could identify a plausible theory of change of how implementation of that lever might alleviate poverty. For every lever we: define and describe the lever; describe the logic or theory of change by which the lever might plausibly be expected to alleviate poverty; summarize the available evidence showing how the lever has alleviated poverty; and discuss the variables that explain heterogeneity in outcomes. Overall, we found limited evidence of these levers being associated with reducing poverty (i.e. moving people out of poverty). Some of the strongest evidence for poverty reduction came from ecotourism, community forest management, agroforestry and, to a lesser extent, payments for ecosystem services (PES). However, we found substantial, varied and context-dependent evidence of several levers being associated with mitigating poverty (i.e. by improving well-being). A multitude of cases showing positive outcomes for poverty mitigation came from community forest management, forest producer organisations, small and medium forest enterprises, PES, and tree crop contract production. A combination of more rigorous and long-term research designs, along with examinations of the cost-effectiveness of different levers, would go a long way to contributing to the design of effective interventions for poverty alleviation.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are now well established globally as tools for conservation, for enhancing marine biodiversity, and for promoting sustainable fisheries. That said, which regions are labeled as MPAs varies substantially, from those that full protect marine species and prohibit human extraction to those that permit everything from intensive fishing to mining. This inconsistency can in some cases inhibit both conservation and quantifying the proportion of the marine environment that is truly protected. Grorud-Colvert et al. review the consistency of MPAs and propose a framework by which levels of protection can be evaluated and improved.