Measuring black rhino recovery

In the mid-20th century, the black rhino population plummeted from 100,000 to fewer than 2,400 due to unregulated hunting, poaching, and habitat loss.

Since its launch in 1964, the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species has become the world’s most comprehensive source on species’ extinction risk. Now, conservationists have introduced the IUCN Green Status, a new global standard that gauges the success of conservation efforts by assessing species’ population recovery and ecological functionality.

To determine the Green Status of critically endangered black rhinos, WWF-KAZA’s Mike Knight and other researchers analyzed data since 1970 using four key measures: conservation legacy, dependence, gain, and recovery potential. They concluded that without prior interventions, in 2022 black rhinos would have numbered just 296 compared to the 6,487 reported—a conservation legacy of 6,191 individuals. And with continued support, their population could reach 20,952 by 2122.

These figures offer proof that conservation efforts have been critical in recovering black rhino populations and that while overall numbers remain below their height, ongoing work has high potential for restoring functional populations of black rhinos in many areas.

The Green Status analysis also provides an important road map for where to focus future conservation efforts.