Peer-reviewed publications

There are severe problems with the decision-making processes currently widely used, leading to ineffective use of evidence, faulty decisions, wasting of resources and the erosion of public and political support. In this book an international team of experts provide solutions.

The transformation suggested includes rethinking how evidence is assessed, combined, communicated and used in decision-making; using effective methods when asking experts to make judgements (i.e. avoiding just asking an expert or a group of experts!); using a structured process for making decisions that incorporate the evidence and having effective processes for learning from actions. In each case, the specific problem with decision making is described with a range of practical solutions.

Adopting this approach to decision-making requires societal change so detailed suggestions are made for transforming organisations, governments, businesses, funders and philanthropists. The practical suggestions include twelve downloadable checklists.

The vision of the authors is to transform conservation so it is more effective, more cost-efficient, learns from practice and is more attractive to funders. However, the lessons of this important book go well beyond conservation to decision-makers in any field.

Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature's contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world's population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

Surface water in arid regions is essential to many organisms including large mammals of conservation concern. For many regions little is known about the extent, ecology and hydrology of ephemeral waters, because they are challenging to map given their ephemeral nature and small sizes. Our goal was to advance surface water knowledge by mapping and monitoring ephemeral water from the wet to dry seasons across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area of southern Africa (300 000 km2). We mapped individual waterholes for six time points each year from mid-2017 to mid-2020, and described their presence, extent, duration, variability, and recurrence. We further analyzed a wide range of physical and landscape aspects of waterhole locations, including soils, geology, and topography, to climate and soil moisture. We identified 2.1 million previously unmapped ephemeral waterholes (85%–89% accuracy) that seasonally extend across 23.5% of the study area. We confirmed a distinct 'blue wave' with ephemeral water across the region peaking at the end of the rainy season. We observed a wide range of waterhole types and sizes, with large variances in seasonal and interannual hydrology. We found that ephemeral surface water was associated with loam soils in the study area. From the wettest time period to the driest, there was a ∼44 000 km2 (62%) decrease in ephemeral water extent across the region—these dramatic seasonal fluctuations have implications for wildlife movement. A warmer and drier climate, expected human population growth, and associated agricultural expansion and development may threaten these sensitive and highly variable water resources and the wildlife that depend on them.

Food is the single strongest lever to optimize human health and environmental sustainability on Earth. However, food is currently threatening both people and the planet. An immense challenge facing humanity is to provide a growing world population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems. While global food production of calories has generally kept pace with population growth, more than 820 million people still lack sufficient food, and many more consume either low-quality diets or too much food. Unhealthy diets now pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than unsafe sex, alcohol, drug and tobacco use combined. Global food production threatens climate stability and ecosystem resilience and constitutes the single largest driver of environmental degradation and transgression of planetary boundaries Willett et al. (2019). Taken together, the outcome is dire. A radical transformation of the global food system is urgently needed. Without action, the world risks failing to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, and today’s children will inherit a planet that has been severely degraded and where much of the population will increasingly suffer from malnutrition and preventable disease…

Billfish species (families Istiophoridae and Xiphiidae) are caught in artisanal, recreational, and commercial fisheries throughout the Western Indian Ocean region. However, data and information on the interactions among these fisheries and the ecology of billfish in the WIO are not well understood. Using an in-depth analysis of peer-reviewed articles, grey literature, observation studies, and authors’ insider knowledge, we summarize the current state of knowledge on billfish fisheries in 10 countries. To describe historical and current trends, we examined fisheries statistics from governmental and non-governmental agencies, sportfishing clubs’ reports, diaries of sportfishing captains, and the catch and effort databases of the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission. We highlight two key points. First, billfish fisheries in the Western Indian Ocean are highly diverse, comprising two distinct segments—coastal and oceanic. However, data are poor for most countries with significant gaps in information especially for sport and artisanal fisheries. Second, the evidence assembled showed that billfish species have immense social, cultural, and economic value. Swordfish are targeted by both large-scale and semi-industrial fisheries, while other billfish species, particularly marlin, are highly sought after by sport fisheries in most countries. Our paper provides a comprehensive review of billfish fisheries and available information in the context of the WIO underscoring the need to strengthen data collection and reporting, citizen science, and collaborative sustainable development and management of billfish.

Social-ecological systems underpinning nature-based solutions (NbS) must be resilient to changing conditions if NbS are to contribute to long-term climate change adaptation. We develop a two-part conceptual framework linking social-ecological resilience to adaptation outcomes in NbS. Part one determines the potential of NbS to support resilience based on assessing whether NbS affect key mechanisms known to enable resilience. Examples include social-ecological diversity, connectivity, and inclusive decision-making. Part two includes adaptation outcomes that building social-ecological resilience can sustain, known as nature's contributions toadaptation (NCAs). We apply the framework to a global dataset of NbS in forests. We find evidence that NbS may be supporting resilience by influencing many enabling mechanisms. NbS also deliver many NCAs such as flood and drought mitigation. However, there is less evidence for some mechanisms and NCAs critical for resilience to long-term uncertainty. We present future research questions to better understand how NbS can continue to support social-ecological systems in a changing world.

The black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) is a keystone species of North American short- and mixed-grass temperate grasslands with critical importance for multiple species of conservation concern. Low population numbers due to habitat and social constraints as well as disease require conservation and management actions. To identify potential habitat and future relocation sites, we evaluated 6 statistical techniques to predict the optimal resource selection function model for black-tailed prairie dog habitat in 3 Native nations of Montana. Random forest models performed best across our study area and included grass coverage and climatic and topographic variables as the most important predictors of prairie dog occupancy. Using predictive habitat models in conjunction with land-use designations can refine conservation planning to support wildlife population objectives where there are foundations for long-term success. Our analysis also serves as a guide for assessing habitat suitability, connectivity, and restoration for additional species dependent or interconnected with black-tailed prairie dogs.

Forest restoration is receiving increased attention from many public and private actors, but few large-scale experiences exist. We explored 10 cases where forest cover had either increased or stabilized or where there was a significant drive towards forest expansion to understand which factors can facilitate the scaling up of forest restoration. We developed a data collection checklist to search the literature and we interviewed key informants. Our analysis identified 15 motivating factors for forest restoration, including the desire to mitigate land degradation, droughts or floods or to contribute to biodiversity conservation. We also identified some factors that facilitate the implementation of forest restoration, such as a supportive policy framework that includes forest restoration plans, financial incentives, truly collaborative arrangements, tenure rights to forests, trees and specific goods and services from these, the roles of specialized agencies, external stakeholders, local communities and local authorities. For restoration to be sustained, it is necessary to integrate it into national institutions, ensure sectoral integration across landscapes, ensure diversified and long-term financing and embed it in local institutions.

Ecotourism helps sustain protected areas (PAs) that in turn conserve Africa's declining fauna. Identifying ecotourist preferences and which species and landscapes benefit from ecotourism could therefore support African biodiversity conservation efforts. Due to historic associations with trophy hunting and subsequent ecotourism marketing efforts, ecotourist preferences have been thought to traditionally center around the ‘Big Five’: elephant, lion, buffalo, leopard, and rhinoceros. But these preferences may be evolving. Here, we ask two questions, one about the drivers and one about the consequences of ecotourism: (1) Which species and landscapes do ecotourists most prefer based on realized visitation data? And (2), differently, which species and landscapes benefit most from ecotourism? We gathered data on average annual tourist visits, the occurrence of nine mammals, bird species richness, forest cover, national wealth, local human population and accessibility for 164 Sub-Saharan African PAs. To address our first question, we used a Bayesian multivariable model to identify whether bird and megafaunal diversity explain visits to PAs while controlling for other factors. To address our second question, we used Bayesian univariate models to analyze the relationships between park visitation and each species/landscape. We found that tourist preferences extend beyond the Big Five to include bird diversity. We also observed that ecotourism may be well suited to conserve bird diversity, lion, cheetah, black and white rhinoceros, African wild dog and giraffe species. Collectively, our results may help inform how to leverage ecotourism to conserve African fauna.

Scientists and policymakers are concerned the effects of climate change will give rise to more militarized conflict over ocean fisheries. These concerns are especially high in contested ocean territories like the East and South China Seas. However, the past effects of global climate for militarized fisheries disputes (MFDs) have not been extensively studied. We assess the effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean-atmosphere warming/cooling cycle measured by sea surface temperature(SST) in the Pacific, on the onset of MFDs among East and South China Sea-adjacent countries. We find strong effects, with El Niño associated with a higher probability of MFD onset. We conclude with preliminary conclusions and pathways for future research.