What to expect at COP31 in Turkey
With warming to exceed 1.5°C, WWF is calling for global climate and nature commitments to be urgently turned into tangible action
By
-
Joshua Goldman
-
and Daniel Vernick
© McDonald Mirabile / WWF-US
Key takeaways
- COP31 comes at a dangerous moment. The world is expected to exceed 1.5°C of warming, the benchmark scientists say may lead to irreversible tipping points in the natural systems that sustain life on Earth. The decisions made now will shape how high temperatures peak and how quickly they come back down.
- Nature should be at the center of climate solutions. Leaders must advance nature-based solutions that strengthen the resilience of people and ecosystems to adapt to climate hazards.
- COP31 must turn promises into results. That means a credible plan to triple adaptation finance for developing countries, faster progress on clean energy and energy efficiency, and more momentum on halting and reversing deforestation by 2030.
This year's global climate negotiations, also known as COP31, take place from Monday, November 9 to Friday, November 20 in Antalya, Turkey. The stakes are higher than ever.
A new report released on October 21 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) finds that there is no longer a chance of holding global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the benchmark scientists say would avoid irreversible tipping points in the natural systems that sustain life on Earth.
Even if all of the country-level climate plans that are in place today were fully achieved, the world would still be headed for roughly 2.6°C of warming by the end of the century. The result would be unprecedented nature loss and catastrophic disasters. COP31 must therefore achieve both more ambition and swifter implementation to keep a safe climate future in view.
Here are some frequently asked questions about the negotiations and the action WWF is calling for.
Why is COP31 important?
It is the first COP since UNEP concluded that the chance of holding global warming to below 1.5°C is gone. The decisions made now will shape how high temperatures peak and how quickly they come back down. COP31 is also where COP30’s big promises, from tripling adaptation finance to new forest finance, need to become results. And the negotiations come days after the US midterm elections, with the largest congressional delegation in at least five years attending the conference.
What does WWF hope to achieve at COP31?
COP31 must turn promises into results. That means a credible plan to triple adaptation finance for developing countries, faster progress on clean, renewable energy and energy efficiency, and more momentum on halting and reversing deforestation by 2030.
World leaders at COP31 must agree to keep tropical forests standing through scaled-up finance and high-integrity carbon markets that deliver benefits to the people and communities protecting them, with finance directly reaching Indigenous Peoples and local communities. Nature must also be put at the center of climate adaptation efforts through advancing nature-based solutions that strengthen the resilience of people and ecosystems to adapt to rising climate hazards. And we must ensure that the transition to clean energy economies protects nature. That means sourcing the minerals needed for batteries, solar panels, and other renewable energy technologies in ways that respect nature and communities, while also developing more circular supply chains that reduce resource demand.
Why is a conservation organization at a climate summit?
Climate change and nature loss are deeply intertwined, generational challenges. Forests and other ecosystems store carbon and help people adapt, and the decisions made at COP on finance, energy, and land-use systems will shape the future of nature. WWF works to align climate and biodiversity commitments, and COP31's host shares that view. Turkey’s Action Agenda prioritizes “Rio synergies” (restoring ecosystems, protecting carbon sinks, and aligning the UN's climate, biodiversity, and land conventions), and COP31 dedicates November 17 to oceans, nature, and land use.
What’s happening with the Tropical Forest Forever Facility?
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is designed to pay countries with tropical forests to keep their trees standing, and at least 20% of payments are intended to reach Indigenous Peoples and local communities. With recent new pledges from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, COP31 is a pivotal moment to demonstrate progress and continued momentum on TFFF. WWF-US and partners are helping countries, and Indigenous Peoples and local communities, prepare for eligibility and access to TFFF finance.
What's the US role now that the federal government has left the Paris Agreement?
Congress still shapes US funding and policy, and over a dozen members of Congress are expected to attend COP31. US businesses, institutions, and conservation groups also remain central to climate action efforts, and COP31 is where we connect them with global partners.
Is 1.5°C still within reach?
Only after a temporary overshoot, but as UN Secretary-General António Guterres says, “Overshoot is not surrender.” UNEP finds temperatures could still return to 1.5°C by 2100 if emissions fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 (from 2025 levels)—but this is far beyond what current national plans deliver.
There is, however, real progress to build on. Renewable electricity capacity has grown nearly 2.5 times faster than expected since the Paris Agreement was signed, for example.1 WWF is pushing to keep the overshoot as small and short as possible through deeper emissions cuts, protection of carbon-rich ecosystems, and support for communities that must adapt to rising climate hazards.
Do climate COPs still matter?
Yes. Climate COPs remain the one forum where nearly every country sets a shared direction and holds each other to account in public. They also give the coalitions and initiatives that increasingly drive climate action the political moment and critical mass they need to move forward.